WEBVTT NOTE This file was generated by Descript 00:00:00.625 --> 00:00:01.165 All right. 00:00:01.290 --> 00:00:06.648 I don't expect this week to to be normally this week is not particularly volatile. 00:00:07.818 --> 00:00:13.087 It's usually winding down, but this is a, this is a special time. 00:00:13.117 --> 00:00:17.910 We're heading into the new year or the end of this year potentially. 00:00:19.500 --> 00:00:23.720 At or near or maybe even creating a year low. 00:00:24.970 --> 00:00:28.007 So that's an unusual, that would be very unusual. 00:00:28.031 --> 00:00:33.284 As far, if you go back and you look at down years very rarely do you have. 00:00:34.534 --> 00:00:38.134 Have a situation where you go into the end of the year and you're 00:00:38.254 --> 00:00:40.214 at or near the low of the year. 00:00:40.214 --> 00:00:41.457 That's gonna be a special thing. 00:00:42.707 --> 00:00:44.483 And it's possible that we continue down. 00:00:44.552 --> 00:00:47.192 I thought for sure we were going to have some sort of rally, 00:00:48.062 --> 00:00:49.712 but that never materialized. 00:00:50.962 --> 00:00:54.031 And the way things are going, I wouldn't be surprised if we. 00:00:55.771 --> 00:00:59.893 At the start of the year, just like we had this past year a huge move down. 00:00:59.911 --> 00:01:05.366 That's very possible, but it doesn't, it really doesn't do us any good to speculate 00:01:05.371 --> 00:01:09.506 on things like that cuz it doesn't really matter, quite frankly with what we do. 00:01:09.517 --> 00:01:12.152 Our exposure is only for a single day. 00:01:13.402 --> 00:01:16.898 And of course it's gonna make a difference in your longer term plans. 00:01:17.483 --> 00:01:19.043 And any investments that you have? 00:01:20.153 --> 00:01:23.943 I am personally mostly in cash. 00:01:23.947 --> 00:01:28.417 Other than that, I have a little gold and a little Tesla. 00:01:29.287 --> 00:01:37.222 I'm gonna probably exit, I, I entered Tesla last week only because 00:01:37.582 --> 00:01:39.479 they were at such a huge low. 00:01:39.479 --> 00:01:42.966 If I get a little pop in Tesla this week, I'm gonna I might get out. 00:01:43.026 --> 00:01:46.257 I, either that or I'll hedge the position, but that's it. 00:01:46.737 --> 00:01:50.359 A little bit of Tesla and cuz I think the stock was just beaten 00:01:50.359 --> 00:01:52.152 down from a political point of view. 00:01:53.502 --> 00:01:55.062 A little bit of Tesla and a little bit of gold. 00:01:55.062 --> 00:02:00.023 Gold has been holding very steadily, even with the down market. 00:02:01.583 --> 00:02:02.499 And I think that's good. 00:02:02.521 --> 00:02:05.264 I've been buying gold as well. 00:02:05.264 --> 00:02:09.915 I've been buying the physical I, just so you know I sold all of my gold at the 00:02:09.915 --> 00:02:11.835 beginning of the year, actually in April. 00:02:13.005 --> 00:02:18.243 I sold all my physical as well as the paper, but I sold all of my pre 1933 00:02:18.243 --> 00:02:20.763 are rare corn gold, and as well as my. 00:02:22.278 --> 00:02:25.354 And I sold it when the price was above $1,900. 00:02:25.423 --> 00:02:30.633 And then since it's been at around $1,600 or, high sixteens, 00:02:30.633 --> 00:02:31.743 I've been buying it back. 00:02:32.993 --> 00:02:37.904 And I've also been buying gold royalty and gold streaming companies. 00:02:37.904 --> 00:02:41.757 All of those companies, the Gold Royalty and Gro Gold streaming, they 00:02:41.762 --> 00:02:47.956 are the financiers of of mergers and acquisitions, new projects, new miners, 00:02:47.956 --> 00:02:49.396 junior miners, that sort of thing. 00:02:50.476 --> 00:02:56.382 And they derive, they derive all of their revenue either from the produced goal that 00:02:56.382 --> 00:03:00.934 they take out of the ground or they get a They get gold at a predetermined price. 00:03:02.184 --> 00:03:05.916 And they're generally the people that, the kind of companies, the gold companies 00:03:05.916 --> 00:03:11.946 that I invest in as opposed to investing directly into the miners because they 00:03:11.946 --> 00:03:15.066 have no overhead and so no expenses. 00:03:15.366 --> 00:03:18.105 They're just basically financing operations. 00:03:18.795 --> 00:03:23.308 They may own various properties or Have interest in a lot of different properties, 00:03:23.578 --> 00:03:24.598 but that's what I've been doing. 00:03:24.703 --> 00:03:27.913 Gold royals and streamers and physical gold. 00:03:28.011 --> 00:03:32.841 I'm just looking to basically find a place to park cash. 00:03:32.956 --> 00:03:35.506 That's another thing that I think is really important is 00:03:35.511 --> 00:03:36.856 have plenty of cash on hand. 00:03:37.816 --> 00:03:39.766 So that's how I'm divvying it up. 00:03:41.016 --> 00:03:42.486 Just to let you know, full disclosure. 00:03:42.614 --> 00:03:50.761 Now going into this this holiday season, I'm going to be trading relatively light. 00:03:50.823 --> 00:03:52.944 I don't know what to expect. 00:03:52.949 --> 00:03:57.504 I think it's going to be potentially volatile, although 00:03:57.534 --> 00:03:59.044 it's very difficult to tell. 00:03:59.074 --> 00:04:00.863 Cuz we're in uncharted territory. 00:04:00.894 --> 00:04:01.824 I don't recall. 00:04:02.619 --> 00:04:07.630 Being at the lows at the end of the year ever before, during a holiday season. 00:04:07.630 --> 00:04:11.427 There have been, other years where we've had no Santa Claus rally. 00:04:11.465 --> 00:04:15.575 We have the Santa Claus rally probably about 65, 70% of the time. 00:04:16.535 --> 00:04:19.441 So it's not unusual that it's a down month. 00:04:19.499 --> 00:04:24.514 The unusual part is that it's a down month and a down year and near the low. 00:04:25.764 --> 00:04:31.440 . So I've been looking at, the correlation between price action 00:04:31.830 --> 00:04:39.060 now and what we had back in 2007 and 2008, and it looks eerily similar. 00:04:40.380 --> 00:04:44.037 So I think that there's a good chance that we, I don't know if, just because 00:04:44.037 --> 00:04:47.307 it's a little similar, I don't know if that means that it, that's an automatic 00:04:47.307 --> 00:04:49.077 tell that price is gonna go down, but. 00:04:49.902 --> 00:04:54.554 When it looks pretty much the same, you want to be on guard, but from 00:04:54.554 --> 00:04:58.121 our point of view what this is gonna mean is potentially elevated 00:04:58.181 --> 00:05:00.002 premium elevated volatility. 00:05:00.002 --> 00:05:05.907 But I've been surprised over the past couple of weeks that we've come off of 00:05:05.907 --> 00:05:11.843 this bear market rally and the VX really hasn't hasn't shot up much at all. 00:05:11.914 --> 00:05:16.544 As a matter of fact, Friday it looks like it went down. 00:05:16.585 --> 00:05:19.555 That, that doesn't make any sense to me at all. 00:05:20.665 --> 00:05:24.395 So let me let me go to the screen, 00:05:25.645 --> 00:05:26.285 the chart. 00:05:26.285 --> 00:05:28.334 Yeah, really don't get that at all. 00:05:28.351 --> 00:05:29.251 Very confusing. 00:05:30.501 --> 00:05:39.720 So what I'm showing here is the vix, the index, and I usually 00:05:39.728 --> 00:05:42.067 look at it in this way that a Vic. 00:05:43.317 --> 00:05:48.798 Vix between 17 and 34 approximately is something I call the goldilock zone. 00:05:48.798 --> 00:05:54.059 That seems to be the the area that is most conducive to doing 00:05:54.064 --> 00:05:55.509 any kind of premium collection. 00:05:55.542 --> 00:05:56.592 And trading in general. 00:05:56.652 --> 00:06:01.494 You get there's a good signal to noise ratio, and right now we're. 00:06:02.439 --> 00:06:05.109 We're just at the bottom of the middle third of it. 00:06:06.309 --> 00:06:07.822 And, that's where we want to be. 00:06:07.827 --> 00:06:09.491 We wanna be anywhere inside of here. 00:06:10.091 --> 00:06:13.745 When it starts getting above 34 things get a little bit chaotic. 00:06:13.745 --> 00:06:16.145 That's why I cop call it Operation Chaos. 00:06:17.015 --> 00:06:21.305 And when it gets below 17, it gets difficult to discern. 00:06:21.305 --> 00:06:27.079 Trend actually, in, in below 17 is actually an interesting place to. 00:06:27.125 --> 00:06:32.182 Last year, if you look back here, that we were down below 17 quite a 00:06:32.182 --> 00:06:37.490 bit and it was one of the best years for doing trading here in it's when I 00:06:37.490 --> 00:06:43.962 first started this business back last year in I started in March of last 00:06:43.962 --> 00:06:49.362 year, and we were consistently below 17, sometimes as low as 15 or 14. 00:06:50.612 --> 00:06:53.825 And it was extremely profitable. 00:06:53.888 --> 00:06:55.298 The market went straight up. 00:06:55.298 --> 00:07:00.428 It was an accom, a super accommodative policy by the Fed, the mark, and every, 00:07:00.428 --> 00:07:02.271 any dip you bought and it just went up. 00:07:02.271 --> 00:07:03.411 It was just easy. 00:07:04.101 --> 00:07:10.191 Now, I don't know if or when we'll ever get back to that kind of policy. 00:07:10.881 --> 00:07:14.554 I would imagine that if we have some kind of major crash that we. 00:07:15.804 --> 00:07:19.874 But I don't expect to see that all of 2023. 00:07:19.879 --> 00:07:26.651 I think 2023 is going to be a sideways and potentially down here. 00:07:27.251 --> 00:07:29.691 So there's gonna be a fair amount of volatility. 00:07:29.720 --> 00:07:34.784 The the Fed is going to continue, it's hiking or Paus. 00:07:36.034 --> 00:07:41.280 I don't think that they're going to pivot if, if that means, reducing rates. 00:07:41.280 --> 00:07:45.225 I don't think that's gonna happen, but I do think there's a good chance that we'll 00:07:45.685 --> 00:07:50.392 probably do another couple of these 50 basis point hikes and then like a pause. 00:07:50.392 --> 00:07:54.157 I wouldn't be surprised at e even the next time that they meet in Jan, 00:07:54.367 --> 00:07:57.067 I think it's in January, or is it fe No, it's February, I believe. 00:07:57.067 --> 00:07:58.287 They don't meet until February. 00:07:58.394 --> 00:08:01.604 I wouldn't be surprised if that's a 50 basis point hike. 00:08:01.624 --> 00:08:06.861 And then they pause at least for one meeting just to let the effect 00:08:06.861 --> 00:08:09.381 of everything that they're doing, at least this is what they're gonna 00:08:09.381 --> 00:08:15.851 say, catch up and be able to see what the result is of their tightening. 00:08:17.101 --> 00:08:18.961 Now one thing that. 00:08:20.236 --> 00:08:26.551 Really gets lost uh, in my view in this market is that the idea that they're 00:08:26.556 --> 00:08:31.708 tightening or that we're, we have a restrictive policy is absolutely a farce. 00:08:32.578 --> 00:08:36.778 You can't have a restrictive policy when your interest 00:08:36.778 --> 00:08:39.318 rates are lower than inflation. 00:08:39.508 --> 00:08:40.888 That makes no sense. 00:08:41.548 --> 00:08:45.718 It's still an accommodative policy, and so everything that they're doing is. 00:08:47.323 --> 00:08:51.671 Adding to inflation, not reducing it, because it can't, you can't 00:08:51.671 --> 00:08:54.191 have, it just doesn't make any sense. 00:08:54.235 --> 00:09:01.073 We're still in negative rate territory, so I don't know what game they're playing. 00:09:02.323 --> 00:09:04.903 I think that they think that all of this stuff is transit. 00:09:04.963 --> 00:09:08.678 See I get the feeling that the Fed has no idea really what causes 00:09:08.678 --> 00:09:11.918 inflation, or they do and they don't want to admit it or whatever. 00:09:11.923 --> 00:09:12.518 I don't know. 00:09:13.028 --> 00:09:16.838 I don't know how to explain it, but it is, the problem with not knowing 00:09:16.838 --> 00:09:21.221 and having this uncertainty is that creates more difficult markets to 00:09:21.221 --> 00:09:25.113 to trade because they become more unstable and you have a lot of these 00:09:25.113 --> 00:09:28.004 intraday reversals and chaotic movement. 00:09:28.059 --> 00:09:32.771 Any little thing sets the market off any rumor or economic report. 00:09:32.771 --> 00:09:37.721 They're always trying to con figure out what the Fed is going to do in the future. 00:09:37.751 --> 00:09:38.766 What's the future cost of. 00:09:38.766 --> 00:09:41.708 Is this economic report going to affect them or not? 00:09:41.708 --> 00:09:43.548 It's really a crazy environment to be in. 00:09:43.572 --> 00:09:44.502 And because of that, 00:09:45.752 --> 00:09:52.153 and because of that, I've and I've chosen to add the the Batman trade. 00:09:52.783 --> 00:09:55.333 But I think that it has to be a little bit different. 00:09:55.333 --> 00:09:57.373 And this is really what I wanted to talk about tonight. 00:09:58.623 --> 00:10:00.573 The classic out of the money. 00:10:00.573 --> 00:10:03.123 Butterfly is a very simple trade, right? 00:10:03.128 --> 00:10:07.863 You pick a direction and you put on a fly and you get it at a one 00:10:07.863 --> 00:10:14.053 to six or one to seven, or one to 10 risk to reward, and that's it. 00:10:14.083 --> 00:10:15.161 It's pretty much it, you pick a. 00:10:16.061 --> 00:10:22.707 I don't know that picking a direction is really all that impactful because 00:10:22.707 --> 00:10:25.917 my win rate on doing that kind of thing, even when I try to pick a 00:10:25.917 --> 00:10:28.017 direction, is still only about 54%. 00:10:29.097 --> 00:10:30.477 However, it's still profitable. 00:10:30.477 --> 00:10:33.093 I get the feeling that, during these kind of markets you can 00:10:33.093 --> 00:10:37.563 basically just use whatever analytical method you want and pick. 00:10:37.563 --> 00:10:38.073 It doesn't really. 00:10:39.063 --> 00:10:40.473 Or just always pick the same one. 00:10:40.478 --> 00:10:43.633 I guess I, I don't know if that would make any difference either. 00:10:44.883 --> 00:10:51.310 But last year it made super big difference just picking mostly going long and then 00:10:51.315 --> 00:10:55.211 going short on the on the pullbacks and then going long after the pullback. 00:10:55.691 --> 00:10:57.081 That was pretty much it last year. 00:10:57.107 --> 00:11:01.374 Picking direction last year, I fooled myself into thinking we were doing good 00:11:01.374 --> 00:11:06.594 work by doing all this geo macroeconomic analysis and picking direction. 00:11:06.684 --> 00:11:10.204 As a matter of fact, that was like, you've gone through the course, you know that's 00:11:10.324 --> 00:11:12.872 the first step in my four step process. 00:11:12.872 --> 00:11:15.004 Now I think it's all bullshit to tell you the truth. 00:11:15.063 --> 00:11:16.563 I don't think it really makes a difference. 00:11:16.618 --> 00:11:17.458 In this market? 00:11:17.638 --> 00:11:21.264 Let me just say that in this market, previous market, I think, I think it 00:11:21.674 --> 00:11:26.768 probably works out to something very basic that if the market is above the 200, 200 00:11:26.773 --> 00:11:31.440 day moving average go long, primarily, if it's below it go short, that's 00:11:31.820 --> 00:11:32.880 probably just as good as anything else. 00:11:32.910 --> 00:11:35.160 Basically, follow along with what the institutions. 00:11:36.410 --> 00:11:40.530 In this market, it's a little bit more complex. 00:11:40.530 --> 00:11:41.801 We're all over the place. 00:11:43.051 --> 00:11:47.932 I don't know that doing any kind of specific analysis is going to help us, but 00:11:47.965 --> 00:11:53.075 I do feel that we still want to maintain at least some kind of directionality 00:11:53.075 --> 00:11:55.548 but at the same time cover our bases. 00:11:55.788 --> 00:11:57.648 And so that's the whole purpose of the Batman. 00:11:58.518 --> 00:12:02.478 Now, of course, the pure Batman trade is a symmetrical trade where 00:12:02.478 --> 00:12:06.138 you put on two classic trades on either side of the market, right? 00:12:06.168 --> 00:12:09.048 And then just put 'em, equidistant part and you're done. 00:12:09.528 --> 00:12:13.051 And then you just have a very simple risk management strategy. 00:12:13.621 --> 00:12:18.831 If price stays in the middle, then you know, I, my number is a third. 00:12:18.869 --> 00:12:20.136 Never give up more than a third. 00:12:20.141 --> 00:12:21.336 But I think you can go down to a. 00:12:22.626 --> 00:12:27.696 Of the total risk, if it goes outside of the flies, same thing. 00:12:28.386 --> 00:12:31.243 A third to a half I think is more than appropriate. 00:12:32.493 --> 00:12:35.500 So risk management is relatively simple. 00:12:36.750 --> 00:12:37.100 On. 00:12:37.350 --> 00:12:37.710 All right. 00:12:38.960 --> 00:12:43.065 And it's going to it's going to give us a better chance at any kind of reversals 00:12:43.065 --> 00:12:44.865 or whatever, and get into another trade. 00:12:44.865 --> 00:12:50.485 Now, what I was alluding to a little bit ago is that you could also. 00:12:51.120 --> 00:12:54.060 Inject some kind of directionality in this too. 00:12:54.390 --> 00:12:58.584 You don't have to have the exact same size fly on either side of the market. 00:12:59.514 --> 00:13:05.245 Like I did that on Friday where I had a a 20 wide fly on the bullish side 00:13:05.245 --> 00:13:10.834 and I had a 30 wide fly on the bearish side, which made a lot of sense because 00:13:10.885 --> 00:13:12.805 that's basically what ended up happening. 00:13:12.865 --> 00:13:14.185 I was it Friday? 00:13:14.245 --> 00:13:14.632 No. 00:13:14.632 --> 00:13:15.073 Thursday. 00:13:15.078 --> 00:13:15.313 I did. 00:13:16.563 --> 00:13:18.269 And that made more sense. 00:13:18.779 --> 00:13:22.169 I took a little less risk on the bullish side than I did the bearish side. 00:13:22.252 --> 00:13:24.214 So I think that's an appropriate thing to do. 00:13:25.464 --> 00:13:28.296 I don't know if anybody's tried anything like that or have 00:13:28.296 --> 00:13:29.646 you thought about that or not? 00:13:30.576 --> 00:13:32.483 But to me it seems a pretty good strategy. 00:13:33.733 --> 00:13:37.464 Because a lot of people have also asked me what happens if price 00:13:37.464 --> 00:13:39.324 moves over to one side or the other? 00:13:39.329 --> 00:13:41.454 Do you get out of the other fly? 00:13:43.194 --> 00:13:45.744 And I think that's a an okay strategy too. 00:13:45.774 --> 00:13:49.434 If you can get out at a point where you still have some 00:13:49.434 --> 00:13:51.924 meat on the bone, you can get. 00:13:51.936 --> 00:13:56.065 And maybe save 30% or so of the risk that you took on that fly 00:13:56.065 --> 00:13:57.555 that prices moved away from. 00:13:58.805 --> 00:14:04.385 And that's a fine strategy too in my experience, price might move back to 00:14:04.385 --> 00:14:09.132 that to that side again occasionally, and then it's a, it's a shitty trade. 00:14:09.180 --> 00:14:13.726 Then I would still follow the half or one third of your total risk and just 00:14:13.731 --> 00:14:15.235 get out of the trade if that happens. 00:14:15.258 --> 00:14:16.593 But I, I don't think that happens too often. 00:14:16.938 --> 00:14:20.876 That's probably a minority case that, it would move in one direction. 00:14:20.876 --> 00:14:23.966 You get out of the opposite fly, then it moves back, and then now 00:14:23.966 --> 00:14:25.346 you have to get out of both flies. 00:14:25.706 --> 00:14:30.853 That's a, that's gonna be generally a maybe 10% of the time that might happen. 00:14:30.853 --> 00:14:31.093 Maybe. 00:14:32.343 --> 00:14:35.733 So it's not a, it's not a huge concern and we're containing risk. 00:14:35.781 --> 00:14:42.641 But the idea of having an asymmetric fly, you have symmetrical flies, but 00:14:42.641 --> 00:14:46.661 asymmetric positions, you one smaller, one larger is also a risk measure. 00:14:47.861 --> 00:14:51.536 So you're you're just putting less risk on one side of the trade. 00:14:52.541 --> 00:14:55.721 Because generally a 20 wide fly is gonna cost you less 00:14:55.721 --> 00:14:57.401 to put on than a 30 wide fly. 00:14:59.051 --> 00:15:01.871 So that's another type of risk measure that we can take. 00:15:03.121 --> 00:15:04.801 Does anybody have any comments on that? 00:15:04.806 --> 00:15:06.101 Are you, do you like that idea? 00:15:06.101 --> 00:15:07.110 Watch yourself, Tim. 00:15:07.110 --> 00:15:07.890 No, crypto. 00:15:09.140 --> 00:15:12.434 So I'll probably start talking about that more often in these 00:15:12.434 --> 00:15:16.953 sort of asymmetric positions, different size flies on either side. 00:15:17.793 --> 00:15:19.818 Friday I did something interesting. 00:15:19.848 --> 00:15:24.205 I I had, I only put on a I started off with, what did I do Friday? 00:15:25.570 --> 00:15:26.830 Did I start off with the fly? 00:15:26.890 --> 00:15:28.846 No I put, I had no idea. 00:15:28.873 --> 00:15:32.107 And it was a difficult market, so I just wanted to take a small 00:15:32.107 --> 00:15:37.837 risk and I put on a super narrow fly and then I put on a few more. 00:15:38.347 --> 00:15:42.067 They were only like five wide, or not, I think there were only five wide. 00:15:42.727 --> 00:15:43.748 I put three of 'em on. 00:15:44.077 --> 00:15:45.547 Oh, actually a total of. 00:15:46.792 --> 00:15:49.804 And one of them hit and one of them, paid off pretty well. 00:15:49.809 --> 00:15:53.740 And I actually made money across all four flies, even though I took some of 'em off. 00:15:54.990 --> 00:15:59.806 And that was an effective strategy just putting, five wide flies using 00:15:59.806 --> 00:16:05.007 the S P X and then spacing 'em every 15 points or something like. 00:16:06.257 --> 00:16:10.919 Seemed to work out pretty good and, made a little bit of money with high probability. 00:16:10.919 --> 00:16:16.139 I made a little bit on one fly, like 40 bucks on one, then I made 190 on another. 00:16:17.039 --> 00:16:20.939 And that more than made up for the cost of the other two flies 00:16:21.329 --> 00:16:23.683 because, the S P X fly the only cost. 00:16:23.753 --> 00:16:26.123 $7 or so in commissions and fees. 00:16:26.204 --> 00:16:29.654 That's another strategy that I'd like to explore. 00:16:29.762 --> 00:16:31.802 Sudip, you have your hand up. 00:16:31.802 --> 00:16:32.912 Did you want to say something? 00:16:33.002 --> 00:16:34.422 Oh, you have, you want, you have a comment? 00:16:35.372 --> 00:16:35.642 . Let's see. 00:16:35.642 --> 00:16:36.602 First there's Justin. 00:16:36.610 --> 00:16:40.503 I've been closing my losing side fly when it has lost 60 00:16:40.503 --> 00:16:42.903 or 70% been working out so far. 00:16:43.203 --> 00:16:43.833 That's fine. 00:16:44.283 --> 00:16:47.986 I think that doing something like that's a perfectly valid strategy. 00:16:47.986 --> 00:16:49.606 I do something like that as well. 00:16:49.679 --> 00:16:54.779 Sudip says, I think given Batmans are more expensive, inherently overall risk, 00:16:54.779 --> 00:16:57.179 reward of the trade would be critical. 00:16:57.209 --> 00:17:01.149 Any guidance on achieving the optimal trade would be valuable. 00:17:01.165 --> 00:17:02.335 This is what I'm suggesting. 00:17:02.365 --> 00:17:05.467 I'm just suggesting that there, there are two strategies. 00:17:05.496 --> 00:17:08.526 One is that you just take you just take your risks faster. 00:17:08.526 --> 00:17:10.479 You don't allow yourself to get more than. 00:17:11.799 --> 00:17:17.111 A third or a half of a unrealized loss in your trade? 00:17:17.111 --> 00:17:22.837 Generally I don't even consider removing anything until at least 00:17:22.837 --> 00:17:27.587 noontime, unless there's been a very strong move to one side or the other. 00:17:27.654 --> 00:17:31.988 If I had put on two, two of the same size flies Is, it just doesn't make a lot of 00:17:31.988 --> 00:17:35.048 sense cuz you don't know where price is gonna go and if you're hanging around 00:17:35.108 --> 00:17:37.538 near the center, price could go anywhere. 00:17:38.828 --> 00:17:41.844 But we've been getting some at least over the past few days, we've been 00:17:41.844 --> 00:17:44.074 getting some pretty good moves. 00:17:44.074 --> 00:17:49.606 There, there were, there was a time, if I go back to the Emen 00:17:49.606 --> 00:17:54.655 here and bring up the date the. 00:17:54.739 --> 00:17:58.279 Most of December has been very difficult to trade in that regard 00:17:58.279 --> 00:18:04.369 because we've had a lot of small moves during the day, right? 00:18:04.369 --> 00:18:11.479 And so it's been hanging around near the center of these two 00:18:11.539 --> 00:18:12.988 flies that we might put on. 00:18:13.933 --> 00:18:17.632 In fact, there was one week where it w worked perfectly and that 00:18:17.632 --> 00:18:21.344 was the first week that we were considering doing the the Batman. 00:18:22.274 --> 00:18:25.503 And I did a little analysis and it would've been a fantastic week 00:18:25.503 --> 00:18:28.908 if that was what we had taken on and, committed to the Batman trade. 00:18:28.908 --> 00:18:31.816 And then the week after that, it seemed like price just 00:18:32.236 --> 00:18:34.306 meandered right in between. 00:18:34.367 --> 00:18:36.700 The the, our trades almost all week. 00:18:36.716 --> 00:18:39.116 But you can see that in, in the chart. 00:18:39.116 --> 00:18:42.332 You know how there was very little movement on those days, 00:18:42.361 --> 00:18:43.681 all of these days right here. 00:18:43.891 --> 00:18:47.311 And even this day, there were just a couple of days that had some 00:18:47.311 --> 00:18:53.251 halfway decent movement, and then we ended up with really nice movement 00:18:53.251 --> 00:18:57.063 for the rest of the of December, november, we had all this choppy, 00:18:57.094 --> 00:18:59.023 didn't go anywhere, moved sideways. 00:18:59.023 --> 00:19:00.283 That was difficult to trade. 00:19:00.973 --> 00:19:02.422 And then it opened up a bit. 00:19:02.422 --> 00:19:07.116 We had this kind of megaphone pattern that we created and now it looks 00:19:07.116 --> 00:19:08.299 like we're breaking down from that. 00:19:08.370 --> 00:19:12.788 So these type of days, these big moving days, except for this day 00:19:12.788 --> 00:19:14.318 right here, is a huge reversal. 00:19:14.318 --> 00:19:17.965 That's a tough, that's a tough day to trade, but when you have a nice trending 00:19:17.965 --> 00:19:20.557 day, those are really nice to to trade. 00:19:20.557 --> 00:19:24.999 So we've been fairly fortunate with those, I think over the past few weeks. 00:19:24.999 --> 00:19:28.414 And those, they've generally given us looks like a. 00:19:29.089 --> 00:19:34.229 A near pin, almost every week, which is pretty good, at least in the past. 00:19:34.241 --> 00:19:39.723 Few, two or two and a half weeks, three weeks, and other good trades. 00:19:39.753 --> 00:19:42.081 So they've it's all worked out really well. 00:19:42.150 --> 00:19:48.450 This pattern that we see here, this megaphone, this is what I'm showing here. 00:19:49.700 --> 00:19:52.220 It's an expanding pattern like this 00:19:53.470 --> 00:19:55.660 actually, then it broke out. 00:19:55.660 --> 00:19:57.040 We were here and then it broke out. 00:19:57.164 --> 00:19:57.764 Yeah, this is 00:19:57.783 --> 00:20:02.446 I think this is rather an o ominous pattern, especially at this time. 00:20:02.446 --> 00:20:05.246 I think that there's a good chance that we're gonna go down further 00:20:05.247 --> 00:20:07.720 maybe down to this node down here. 00:20:07.720 --> 00:20:11.028 It looks like we're entering into a, an area of illiquidity. 00:20:11.028 --> 00:20:15.243 You notice that I've drawn all of these orange lines that all line 00:20:15.243 --> 00:20:19.064 up with the the LVLs or these very low points in the volume. 00:20:19.094 --> 00:20:23.305 We'll use those as our inflection points for support and resistance when we're 00:20:23.305 --> 00:20:26.485 trying to manage the profits in our trade. 00:20:27.735 --> 00:20:28.185 Let's see. 00:20:28.185 --> 00:20:33.915 Tom says, could you say more about, more or less optimal times to 00:20:33.920 --> 00:20:36.855 get in or out toward the close? 00:20:37.335 --> 00:20:40.909 Will you put on one or more DTE trades? 00:20:42.159 --> 00:20:42.861 No I won't. 00:20:42.862 --> 00:20:46.910 I might put on the night before there's, if there was a trade tonight to put 00:20:46.910 --> 00:20:48.530 on, I might put something like that on. 00:20:48.560 --> 00:20:54.377 But I don't, I think that tonight it might, I would say that it's 00:20:54.377 --> 00:20:57.437 gonna be another down day, but it's already started a little up. 00:20:58.637 --> 00:21:02.238 But I think taking a chance at a down, a downward move for tomorrow, you 00:21:02.238 --> 00:21:03.558 could probably get a good risk to. 00:21:05.058 --> 00:21:10.542 I don't consider that a one d e one d t e trade because it's still the futures and 00:21:10.542 --> 00:21:15.105 it's the future's session for tomorrow start already started at six o'clock. 00:21:15.110 --> 00:21:16.665 So it's the same session. 00:21:17.325 --> 00:21:21.675 So if you wanna call that a one D t e, that's fine, but I don't call 00:21:21.675 --> 00:21:26.365 it a one d t e in terms of getting out is really a very simple thing. 00:21:27.615 --> 00:21:31.963 Either you're outside the a fly or you're inside the fly. 00:21:32.683 --> 00:21:36.673 If you're in a Batman, there's only two cases that you could be outside the fly. 00:21:36.673 --> 00:21:41.413 Either you're directly in the middle of the two flies, or you're on the outside. 00:21:41.863 --> 00:21:48.493 And when you have two trades on, like I said, my, my basic strategy is once 00:21:48.498 --> 00:21:50.713 you've achieved, more than a third or. 00:21:50.788 --> 00:21:52.288 Of the total debit loss. 00:21:52.288 --> 00:21:55.258 I just get out, I just close my positions. 00:21:56.508 --> 00:21:59.118 So that's my exit strategy in terms of risk. 00:21:59.718 --> 00:22:03.091 But in terms of taking profit, is that what you're asking Tom? 00:22:03.161 --> 00:22:04.331 In terms of taking profit? 00:22:05.581 --> 00:22:08.319 That's no different than what we do with the classic fly. 00:22:08.319 --> 00:22:12.468 If we're inside of the the profit tent of the trade there's really 00:22:12.468 --> 00:22:14.098 nothing to do, quite frankly. 00:22:14.098 --> 00:22:16.800 You stay with the trade as long as you're inside there. 00:22:16.800 --> 00:22:20.910 The only thing that there is to do is to keep track of what your high watermark is 00:22:21.240 --> 00:22:25.180 at any time, and really until you get to. 00:22:25.210 --> 00:22:28.600 1 30, 2 o'clock in the afternoon, it doesn't matter unless 00:22:28.600 --> 00:22:29.800 you're in a much wider fly. 00:22:30.250 --> 00:22:36.610 If you're like in a 20 wide fly and it gets to one 30 or so, now you 00:22:36.615 --> 00:22:38.170 have to start managing your profit. 00:22:38.170 --> 00:22:43.428 You have to note what is the maximum profit that you've taken at any time, 00:22:43.608 --> 00:22:45.348 wherever that high watermark is. 00:22:45.888 --> 00:22:50.200 And then my personal way of doing it is I say, look, I'm not gonna take any less. 00:22:50.286 --> 00:22:53.376 25% or 35% loss. 00:22:53.526 --> 00:22:58.686 So if it, let's, so for instance, let's say I achieved $2, right? 00:22:58.896 --> 00:23:03.736 If it goes down to a dollar 50 or a dollar 30 or something like that, or a dollar 00:23:03.736 --> 00:23:05.836 40, I guess would be one third, I get out. 00:23:07.086 --> 00:23:09.756 But as long as it stays above that, I stay in. 00:23:11.006 --> 00:23:11.996 See the time. 00:23:13.286 --> 00:23:17.980 I don't even like to make a decision until you start getting until, with a 20 wide. 00:23:19.330 --> 00:23:22.890 Now remember, you can refer back to my my study that I did. 00:23:22.914 --> 00:23:24.870 This guy here, for a 20 wide. 00:23:25.006 --> 00:23:28.584 Things don't really start getting moving until a noontime, that's 00:23:28.584 --> 00:23:30.844 when profit starts to increase. 00:23:30.858 --> 00:23:34.098 If I were to plot this, can see it on the 20 wide. 00:23:34.098 --> 00:23:36.248 You can see where it starts going. 00:23:36.338 --> 00:23:36.848 Let's see. 00:23:36.848 --> 00:23:40.298 That would be 1230. 00:23:40.718 --> 00:23:43.238 Yeah, so around 1230. 00:23:43.898 --> 00:23:48.308 Or so that's when things start accelerating 1231 o'clock. 00:23:49.448 --> 00:23:51.728 To me, that's what it appears, at least on this chart. 00:23:51.728 --> 00:23:57.308 If you were to look at it very closely on the 30 wide man, it starts 00:23:57.308 --> 00:24:00.128 accelerating much earlier, right? 00:24:00.158 --> 00:24:06.027 So on a 30 wide, you can start looking at taking profit and start. 00:24:06.036 --> 00:24:10.670 Managing your profit much earlier, like at 11 o'clock or 10, around 11 o'clock. 00:24:10.670 --> 00:24:11.180 I would say 00:24:12.430 --> 00:24:13.430 that's the way I would play it. 00:24:13.430 --> 00:24:14.549 If it is in the tent. 00:24:14.579 --> 00:24:17.099 Do you get out around the middle strike? 00:24:17.099 --> 00:24:17.413 No. 00:24:17.413 --> 00:24:25.470 I Like I said, the way I look at it is I choose a percentage, so for a 20 00:24:25.470 --> 00:24:30.930 wide, when it's around two o'clock and whatever my high watermark is of how much 00:24:30.930 --> 00:24:36.810 profit that I've gained or unrealized, at that point I set some limit. 00:24:37.190 --> 00:24:42.570 So if it loses 25 or 30%, whatever that amount is, that's when I. 00:24:43.820 --> 00:24:50.117 Now, coincidentally enough, that amount usually means that it was probably 00:24:50.122 --> 00:24:54.967 somewhere in the middle part of the fly and it moved to the outside of the fly. 00:24:56.217 --> 00:24:57.447 That's about where it is. 00:24:57.554 --> 00:24:57.944 Dr. 00:24:57.949 --> 00:24:59.144 Russell has the. 00:25:00.389 --> 00:25:01.289 He just makes it simple. 00:25:01.289 --> 00:25:05.086 He says if it goes outside of the expiration, the cyan lines on 00:25:05.086 --> 00:25:06.748 the butterfly, then he gets out. 00:25:07.918 --> 00:25:09.718 And I think that's a fine strategy. 00:25:10.648 --> 00:25:11.758 I have no problem with that. 00:25:13.008 --> 00:25:16.569 That's, that is approximately what I'm talking about. 00:25:16.638 --> 00:25:21.108 For the wider flies you can make that you can start looking at your how much 00:25:21.348 --> 00:25:23.268 profit that you've gained earlier. 00:25:24.558 --> 00:25:29.490 And the reason why is that the the profit curve is much flatter the wider flies. 00:25:29.580 --> 00:25:32.979 So the chances are that you're you're gonna stay in it for a lot longer. 00:25:34.229 --> 00:25:38.943 So it's when you start getting to near the end of the day and your the profit 00:25:38.943 --> 00:25:43.426 tent starts getting really steep or the profit curve gets really steep. 00:25:43.562 --> 00:25:44.922 And the gamma risk gets high. 00:25:44.943 --> 00:25:52.556 You just have to, you have to set something, some limit where you are 00:25:52.556 --> 00:25:56.750 and how much you're willing to give up and have your exit trade ready to go. 00:25:57.650 --> 00:26:01.081 And make sure that you grab as much profit as you possibly can. 00:26:01.113 --> 00:26:05.122 Like I said, always set, keep track of your high water. 00:26:06.367 --> 00:26:07.487 From the high water mark. 00:26:07.511 --> 00:26:09.118 It's like a trailing stop in your head. 00:26:09.478 --> 00:26:13.978 I don't know if you can actually do these trailing stops or whether or not 00:26:13.983 --> 00:26:19.955 they're really valid or you can execute them in think or Swim or any platform. 00:26:21.065 --> 00:26:22.355 I don't know if anybody's tried that. 00:26:23.525 --> 00:26:26.462 I don't try, I just do it by hand and it's not a big deal for me. 00:26:26.531 --> 00:26:27.161 If I. 00:26:27.986 --> 00:26:33.416 Part of the management of that too is not just I mean there's gotta 00:26:33.416 --> 00:26:38.366 be some confirmation in there too because you're also looking at the the 00:26:38.366 --> 00:26:43.831 underlying price, action and perhaps also any of the market structure. 00:26:43.861 --> 00:26:46.261 Cuz if there's market structure there and you feel like there 00:26:46.261 --> 00:26:48.241 is a place that's keeping you. 00:26:48.244 --> 00:26:53.965 In the fly because there's a nice L v L line right there, that gives 00:26:53.965 --> 00:26:55.015 you a little bit more confidence. 00:26:55.015 --> 00:26:58.345 Maybe you can be a little bit more lax, right? 00:26:59.275 --> 00:27:03.160 So in other words, if there's a line right outside of the fly 00:27:03.165 --> 00:27:04.660 and that, and you've picked. 00:27:05.240 --> 00:27:10.580 Say 30% is your breakeven or your breakpoint, and it went down to 00:27:10.850 --> 00:27:15.162 35%, but it's right on that L V L, which is providing support. 00:27:15.162 --> 00:27:20.027 I'd probably trust the L V L other than my over my arbitrary number. 00:27:20.112 --> 00:27:25.602 My, my goal is to find a way that I can stay in longer inside of that 00:27:25.607 --> 00:27:28.899 tent, because the longer I stay the more money that I'm gonna make, 00:27:30.149 --> 00:27:31.439 it's a high quality problem to have. 00:27:31.439 --> 00:27:35.148 It's not I don't know why anybody is really getting angst over this. 00:27:35.169 --> 00:27:40.196 The thing is that, you know when you're gonna get those really nice trades 00:27:40.196 --> 00:27:43.136 right inside, near the middle, if you're anywhere near the middle, within. 00:27:44.381 --> 00:27:48.551 On a 20 wide, within five points on a 30 wide, within 10 or even 15 00:27:48.551 --> 00:27:51.780 points as long as you stay within that area, it's gonna probably rise 00:27:51.785 --> 00:27:53.370 all the way right into the close. 00:27:54.620 --> 00:27:57.080 And so you just stay with it as long as you possibly can. 00:27:57.110 --> 00:27:58.670 That's ultimately where you want to be. 00:27:58.700 --> 00:28:03.434 You want to be, 10 points or 15 points o within 10 or 15 points off the 00:28:03.434 --> 00:28:05.594 center and ride it into the close. 00:28:05.594 --> 00:28:06.824 You're gonna make a huge. 00:28:08.074 --> 00:28:11.554 But once it starts getting a little later in the day and it gets off 00:28:11.734 --> 00:28:15.429 outside of the profit tent, you gotta hold onto those those win, whatever 00:28:15.434 --> 00:28:19.644 profit you've got, and then take it in and then just, give up the idea that 00:28:19.644 --> 00:28:22.904 you're going to get another pin trade. 00:28:24.154 --> 00:28:26.044 But like I said, you can also. 00:28:26.404 --> 00:28:28.424 Look at the PR market profile. 00:28:28.424 --> 00:28:34.485 I've been talking about studying the price action of the profile, since 00:28:34.485 --> 00:28:38.025 day one, and I keep close track of it. 00:28:38.715 --> 00:28:40.335 You can have two different systems. 00:28:40.455 --> 00:28:43.725 You can have this sort of numeric system that I use in my head. 00:28:43.725 --> 00:28:44.763 That's my first system. 00:28:44.763 --> 00:28:48.933 And then the second system is the price action, or price action 00:28:48.933 --> 00:28:51.814 can be your first system and then the numeric system can be your. 00:28:51.835 --> 00:28:57.985 What I'm saying here to you is that I don't have, I don't have the golden rule 00:28:57.985 --> 00:28:59.965 that says this is the way it must be done. 00:29:00.145 --> 00:29:04.855 As if I know, cuz I don't know what is the best way. 00:29:05.515 --> 00:29:11.125 And the best way is the way that you develop over time that keeps you more 00:29:11.125 --> 00:29:12.965 consistently inside of that profit. 00:29:14.215 --> 00:29:19.435 So if you're looking for, from me to tell you some magic formula that 00:29:19.435 --> 00:29:22.555 keeps you inside that profit tent, you're looking in the wrong place. 00:29:22.795 --> 00:29:25.135 There's nobody that's gonna be able to tell you that. 00:29:26.045 --> 00:29:31.255 However, you can develop your own strategy for keeping yourself in there 00:29:31.315 --> 00:29:36.425 through your logging and journaling, and then your your reviewing and 00:29:36.755 --> 00:29:39.275 your retrospectives of your trades. 00:29:39.695 --> 00:29:40.775 And over time you're gonna. 00:29:41.600 --> 00:29:45.423 Your own set of criteria that's gonna keep you in that trade. 00:29:46.173 --> 00:29:48.993 That's ultimately what I want you to do. 00:29:49.383 --> 00:29:51.183 That's ultimately what you need to do. 00:29:51.363 --> 00:29:52.653 I sent you an email, hon. 00:29:53.313 --> 00:29:53.733 Huh? 00:29:53.923 --> 00:29:54.933 I sent you an email. 00:29:56.183 --> 00:29:56.683 All right. 00:29:56.683 --> 00:29:57.323 Is that clear? 00:29:57.354 --> 00:30:02.606 To say you get out at around the middle strike, I can see no reason to get out 00:30:02.606 --> 00:30:04.196 of the from the, at the middle strike. 00:30:04.616 --> 00:30:08.199 If it's not the end of the day, that would be crazy. 00:30:08.199 --> 00:30:09.229 Why would you do that? 00:30:09.276 --> 00:30:10.656 That would make no sense. 00:30:10.956 --> 00:30:12.846 I want, that's exactly where I want to be. 00:30:13.296 --> 00:30:19.221 Now, if you're at the middle strike, And you have $250 gain and then it moves 00:30:19.221 --> 00:30:27.591 to the side and you've lost say, 50 or $75 of that gain, then I would get out. 00:30:28.841 --> 00:30:34.630 Or if I, or if it violates my price action strategy or my analysis 00:30:34.630 --> 00:30:38.140 that I feel like, okay, it's moved enough off of the center strike. 00:30:38.845 --> 00:30:44.051 And now it's gotten to over an L V L or a market structure over an inflection point, 00:30:44.261 --> 00:30:49.027 and now what was support now turned to resistance, then I'd probably get out. 00:30:50.277 --> 00:30:53.823 Or if another case, w there are di different patterns that I've 00:30:53.823 --> 00:30:55.323 shown you before, like you see. 00:30:56.013 --> 00:30:57.073 I call it the curve. 00:30:57.073 --> 00:30:58.867 You get the curve and then the breakout. 00:30:58.872 --> 00:31:03.217 If you see something like that happen and then that, and then it hits that breakout, 00:31:03.222 --> 00:31:05.167 now it starts moving outside of your fly. 00:31:05.467 --> 00:31:10.387 You get out, you're gonna develop this knowledge set of price, 00:31:10.387 --> 00:31:13.477 action, and other types of analysis. 00:31:14.727 --> 00:31:21.410 That over time is going to be your methodology for determining whether or not 00:31:21.415 --> 00:31:23.360 price is gonna stay inside of your profit. 00:31:23.945 --> 00:31:28.595 Long enough for you to maximize your profits or not. 00:31:28.895 --> 00:31:31.561 And that's really what this is all about. 00:31:31.625 --> 00:31:36.425 That's the reason why you need to log and journal your trades and then review all 00:31:36.425 --> 00:31:42.850 your trades and develop that strategy over time and refine it and, find, and you're 00:31:42.850 --> 00:31:44.500 gonna find some commonality over time. 00:31:44.500 --> 00:31:46.480 You're gonna see some trades that happen over and over 00:31:46.480 --> 00:31:47.860 again, or patterns that happen. 00:31:49.090 --> 00:31:52.243 And those are going to be part of your playbook. 00:31:52.243 --> 00:31:57.867 I've talked about this a lot, that your ultimate goal is to, each week you have, 00:31:57.929 --> 00:32:00.269 some number of trades, five, 10 trades. 00:32:00.355 --> 00:32:02.875 Out of those five or 10 trades, there's probably gonna be two or 00:32:02.875 --> 00:32:06.355 three that are going to bubble up to the top is things that stand 00:32:06.355 --> 00:32:08.865 out for you that you like a lot. 00:32:09.550 --> 00:32:13.480 And they may be very similar to other trades that you've seen in 00:32:13.920 --> 00:32:15.220 previous weeks or previous months. 00:32:16.060 --> 00:32:18.760 And so those are the trades that are going to bubble up the, 00:32:18.820 --> 00:32:20.530 to the top of your playbook. 00:32:21.100 --> 00:32:24.370 And so you're gonna keep this playbook that might have hundreds of trades in it. 00:32:24.370 --> 00:32:30.045 At the top are your top 15 trades, and then, another trade comes in there and 00:32:30.045 --> 00:32:31.185 it's better than all of the others. 00:32:31.185 --> 00:32:32.715 And maybe it gets the top spot. 00:32:32.745 --> 00:32:33.195 Who knows? 00:32:33.195 --> 00:32:33.585 I don't. 00:32:33.705 --> 00:32:34.815 However that works. 00:32:36.065 --> 00:32:39.185 And then you're gonna start categorizing them based on the 00:32:39.545 --> 00:32:41.495 context of the market or the play. 00:32:41.495 --> 00:32:44.585 And those are things you're going to become familiar with 00:32:44.585 --> 00:32:46.671 and be more adept at trading. 00:32:48.171 --> 00:32:53.721 That's the whole, that's everything there is about being a trader, that it takes a 00:32:53.721 --> 00:33:00.291 lot of time to develop those strategies and those setups that work best for. 00:33:01.541 --> 00:33:07.961 No one is going to tell you that this is the best way, and then you're, look, 00:33:08.981 --> 00:33:11.741 someone might, with a lot of experience, might say, Hey, look, I've noticed 00:33:11.741 --> 00:33:16.181 this pattern, and fine, you file that pattern away and next time it happens, 00:33:16.186 --> 00:33:20.681 if you see it, then you, okay, you've got one piece of anecdotal evidence. 00:33:20.681 --> 00:33:22.901 Then maybe you see it two weeks later. 00:33:23.111 --> 00:33:25.511 Then you see it the next week, three times in a row. 00:33:26.756 --> 00:33:29.547 Now you start building up some information on that pattern, you 00:33:29.547 --> 00:33:30.804 say, Hey, that guy was right. 00:33:30.804 --> 00:33:32.317 That was a good call on that. 00:33:32.317 --> 00:33:36.787 I think I'll adopt that as something that I'm going to be looking for that context, 00:33:38.037 --> 00:33:38.597 right? 00:33:38.767 --> 00:33:43.805 If we have trades that that we see, like that setups that we see, like that, you 00:33:43.805 --> 00:33:45.605 should be sharing that with everybody too. 00:33:45.726 --> 00:33:51.223 That's why I have the the playbook section channel for you to put these 00:33:51.523 --> 00:33:56.623 plays that you find in there so that other people can benefit from them. 00:33:57.873 --> 00:33:58.303 Everyone get that? 00:33:59.553 --> 00:34:01.263 That is why we have this channel. 00:34:02.513 --> 00:34:06.064 So that and I even, we have even have examples of what that might look like. 00:34:06.064 --> 00:34:09.403 Brother Chromatin actually has a really great example of his in there. 00:34:09.433 --> 00:34:11.953 I really like that, but it doesn't matter. 00:34:11.953 --> 00:34:12.943 It can be anything. 00:34:12.987 --> 00:34:14.815 He has a templated thing that I created, 00:34:16.065 --> 00:34:19.305 so no one's used this yet. 00:34:19.980 --> 00:34:22.260 I'm not sure why they just, maybe they haven't got it yet. 00:34:23.510 --> 00:34:25.460 Maybe I'll have to start putting stuff in there. 00:34:26.840 --> 00:34:30.715 But I see I don't want to be like, Hey, everybody, follow 00:34:30.720 --> 00:34:31.915 what Ernie's doing, right? 00:34:31.920 --> 00:34:34.285 And whatever he does, that's going to be the thing. 00:34:35.535 --> 00:34:38.438 I am not you have to develop these things for yourself. 00:34:39.998 --> 00:34:41.558 I can only show you a method. 00:34:41.918 --> 00:34:49.118 For doing it, a strategy and a methodology, and then you develop 00:34:49.118 --> 00:34:50.408 the intelligence on your own. 00:34:51.698 --> 00:34:55.238 That's how you're gonna become an independent professional trader. 00:34:56.348 --> 00:34:57.630 And it's gonna take time. 00:34:58.230 --> 00:35:00.280 All of this takes a lot of time. 00:35:00.349 --> 00:35:04.199 The business here has only been in operation for about 00:35:04.199 --> 00:35:05.249 a year and three quarters. 00:35:06.089 --> 00:35:06.509 You. 00:35:07.034 --> 00:35:09.444 For a lot of traders, that's how, that's when they first start. 00:35:09.475 --> 00:35:12.145 Takes them a year and three quarters on a strategy or anything 00:35:12.145 --> 00:35:15.179 before they start really, kneeling into it and getting good at it. 00:35:16.429 --> 00:35:19.579 The thing that you're gonna come in here and after a few months all of a sudden 00:35:19.579 --> 00:35:24.979 become a pro trader, or after 90 days even, it's just, that's a pipe dream. 00:35:25.069 --> 00:35:25.999 It's bull. 00:35:26.599 --> 00:35:30.769 If anybody told you that, you know that you can go into some other strategy and 00:35:30.769 --> 00:35:35.359 in 90 days you'll become a professional, or you know you will be successful at 00:35:35.359 --> 00:35:38.209 this thing, that's just, that's crap. 00:35:39.349 --> 00:35:45.079 It can take a year, two years, or more before you start finding your stride. 00:35:46.329 --> 00:35:49.049 But the only way you're gonna get there, the only path. 00:35:49.809 --> 00:35:58.098 To that level of achievement is through doing the type of methodology and strategy 00:35:58.103 --> 00:35:59.678 and process that I'm talking about. 00:35:59.678 --> 00:36:04.298 That's the only way every professional trader that I know, that's what they do. 00:36:04.358 --> 00:36:08.197 It takes 'em a lot of, some, some guys go through two, three years 00:36:08.197 --> 00:36:09.367 before they even get to that. 00:36:10.617 --> 00:36:16.827 And that's with intense journaling, logging, reviewing, refining, et cetera. 00:36:18.297 --> 00:36:22.731 And usually it's in, they're scaling right at first. 00:36:22.736 --> 00:36:25.377 They, They're doing it small, making sure that they're profitable 00:36:25.382 --> 00:36:29.697 at a certain level, and then they scale up to the next level. 00:36:29.757 --> 00:36:30.897 And then they scale again. 00:36:30.902 --> 00:36:32.757 They scale again until they can do it. 00:36:32.757 --> 00:36:33.117 Consist. 00:36:34.367 --> 00:36:35.387 That's what it takes. 00:36:36.677 --> 00:36:39.167 If you don't like that, if you think that there's some other 00:36:39.167 --> 00:36:43.667 way, then I Good luck to you. 00:36:44.917 --> 00:36:45.367 Really. 00:36:46.617 --> 00:36:50.084 I'm just showing you the way that I know of all the professional traders 00:36:50.084 --> 00:36:53.984 I've ever met in my life that I've seen super successful people, they all 00:36:53.984 --> 00:36:56.114 go through exactly the same process. 00:36:57.364 --> 00:36:58.504 This is a good strategy. 00:36:58.509 --> 00:36:59.544 This is a great strategy. 00:36:59.549 --> 00:37:01.075 This is a pro strategy, 00:37:02.325 --> 00:37:08.115 but it is different for every individual for how they interpret it. 00:37:09.675 --> 00:37:09.885 Sure. 00:37:09.885 --> 00:37:12.500 There's, there's commonality and there's some basic. 00:37:12.500 --> 00:37:14.782 Guidelines that we follow and that sort of thing. 00:37:14.782 --> 00:37:18.862 But when it comes down to all these little nuances and what makes one 00:37:18.862 --> 00:37:23.459 trader different from another, or what makes one trader successful and another 00:37:23.459 --> 00:37:28.692 trader successful, could be the exact same trade, but they, one trader does 00:37:28.692 --> 00:37:31.392 it this way, another one does it this way, and they're both successful at it. 00:37:32.642 --> 00:37:35.612 Any questions, discussion? 00:37:36.812 --> 00:37:39.840 I don't wanna keep on belabor, belaboring the point, I. 00:37:39.867 --> 00:37:40.287 I do. 00:37:40.497 --> 00:37:43.254 I mean that that's basically what I do as a coach. 00:37:43.434 --> 00:37:46.742 I'm trying to tell you and guide you in, the direction that you should be going. 00:37:46.742 --> 00:37:50.902 And this is the direction you need to develop your daily process. 00:37:50.902 --> 00:37:52.672 You need to develop your weekly process. 00:37:52.672 --> 00:37:57.491 You need to keep logging, journaling keep your statistics, note all of the 00:37:57.526 --> 00:37:59.675 the analysis that you're doing, review. 00:38:01.310 --> 00:38:03.170 Bubble that up into different playbooks. 00:38:03.170 --> 00:38:04.370 Keep track of those. 00:38:04.610 --> 00:38:05.720 Keep on improving 00:38:06.970 --> 00:38:07.480 first. 00:38:07.480 --> 00:38:12.937 Stay at some level of of position sizing and get consistent with that. 00:38:14.257 --> 00:38:18.736 Because every time you scale, it's not just a scale, when you scale, it opens 00:38:18.736 --> 00:38:21.136 up whole new set of possibilities. 00:38:22.386 --> 00:38:24.756 You may not treat your trades the same as you did when you were 00:38:24.756 --> 00:38:27.255 at that lower, say one position. 00:38:27.260 --> 00:38:29.215 Then you get up to two or three positions. 00:38:29.220 --> 00:38:30.275 It's a whole different ballgame. 00:38:30.275 --> 00:38:35.270 So you have to in, in manner might have to even relearn to get consistent again. 00:38:36.520 --> 00:38:39.631 There's there's no shortcut to that path. 00:38:39.681 --> 00:38:43.306 I guess everybody agrees with what I'm saying cuz no one's really, I'd love it if 00:38:43.311 --> 00:38:44.956 you say, yeah, that sounds great, Ernie. 00:38:44.956 --> 00:38:45.976 That's what I'm gonna do. 00:38:46.006 --> 00:38:47.236 Give me the help I need. 00:38:47.236 --> 00:38:48.386 Keep me accountable. 00:38:48.386 --> 00:38:49.612 Keep me on that path. 00:38:49.792 --> 00:38:50.682 That's what I'm here for. 00:38:51.932 --> 00:38:58.385 So I'm going to start drawing up some high level things that you should be thinking 00:38:58.385 --> 00:39:00.699 about in terms of using me as a coach too. 00:39:00.729 --> 00:39:01.479 I agree with that. 00:39:01.479 --> 00:39:05.043 Odd I agree that it it is uniquely yours. 00:39:05.074 --> 00:39:06.544 It's what works for you. 00:39:07.234 --> 00:39:11.434 Now, what works for you may also work for 10 other people, but it's still 00:39:11.434 --> 00:39:15.172 yours, , , and you might have a unique twist on it, but you're absolutely right. 00:39:16.422 --> 00:39:20.622 That's why me trying to show you what works for me might be good for 00:39:20.622 --> 00:39:25.542 an example, but it might not really be the analogy that you need or the 00:39:26.022 --> 00:39:31.441 metaphor that you need or whatever it is, or the little trigger that goes 00:39:31.441 --> 00:39:33.031 off in your head that works for you. 00:39:33.871 --> 00:39:34.961 It's gonna be different for every. 00:39:36.211 --> 00:39:37.951 We're all unique personalities. 00:39:39.201 --> 00:39:39.577 All right. 00:39:39.577 --> 00:39:41.106 We're it's 10 o'clock now. 00:39:42.356 --> 00:39:45.506 I am finished saying what I'm saying and let me review. 00:39:45.521 --> 00:39:50.372 We're going to be looking at and experimenting with. 00:39:51.622 --> 00:39:56.003 The Batman trade and making them a little bit asymmetric, right? 00:39:56.003 --> 00:39:59.423 So varying the risk on either side of the, at the money. 00:40:00.833 --> 00:40:02.723 That's kinda like the big thing right now. 00:40:02.993 --> 00:40:06.383 Batman tra and occasionally just put on the singular classic trade 00:40:06.683 --> 00:40:07.943 like I did just the other day. 00:40:07.943 --> 00:40:10.613 It didn't make sense to put on another trade on the other side. 00:40:11.033 --> 00:40:14.693 I had no confidence at all that price was gonna go anywhere but down. 00:40:14.693 --> 00:40:16.133 So I put a trade on that side. 00:40:16.373 --> 00:40:17.123 There's no sense. 00:40:18.128 --> 00:40:19.658 Putting a trade on both sides. 00:40:19.678 --> 00:40:23.891 If you're highly confident that it's gonna go in one direction, you save a lot of 00:40:23.891 --> 00:40:27.353 money, you get a better risk to reward probably a better chance of profiting. 00:40:28.603 --> 00:40:32.173 But in general, I think this market is conducive to a Batman trade. 00:40:32.173 --> 00:40:35.213 But with a little bit of waiting side to side. 00:40:35.309 --> 00:40:40.155 For the most part, you try at first, try the the standard same size 00:40:40.155 --> 00:40:44.835 trade on either side, and then that should come with some sort of risk 00:40:44.835 --> 00:40:46.500 management that you conjure up. 00:40:46.500 --> 00:40:49.830 I've given you some basic outlines of what I do 00:40:51.080 --> 00:40:52.103 and we go from there. 00:40:52.853 --> 00:40:54.713 All right, I am done. 00:40:55.463 --> 00:40:57.083 I hope everybody has a great evening. 00:40:58.433 --> 00:40:59.843 Let's get the big head back here. 00:41:01.093 --> 00:41:02.145 It's starting to look pasty. 00:41:03.395 --> 00:41:09.215 Need like a tanning booth or something, or just maybe some time down south. 00:41:10.465 --> 00:41:11.295 No questions. 00:41:12.545 --> 00:41:12.995 All right. 00:41:13.535 --> 00:41:14.585 Thank you very much. 00:41:14.705 --> 00:41:15.435 We'll see you all. 00:41:15.985 --> 00:41:16.465 I will. 00:41:16.465 --> 00:41:19.309 I will process this video and then get it out to you 00:41:20.559 --> 00:41:21.389 piece to all.