WEBVTT NOTE This file was generated by Descript 00:00:02.430 --> 00:00:03.210 How's it going? 00:00:03.660 --> 00:00:04.620 We are alive. 00:00:05.790 --> 00:00:06.330 Yes. 00:00:07.110 --> 00:00:07.500 It's a good thing. 00:00:07.500 --> 00:00:08.100 I'm alive. 00:00:09.750 --> 00:00:11.880 This is, zero days to expiration. 00:00:11.880 --> 00:00:16.920 This is the final hour trade and this is the second half of our journey 00:00:16.920 --> 00:00:20.040 to a hundred trades going live. 00:00:20.100 --> 00:00:21.270 We gotta shut her up. 00:00:22.110 --> 00:00:23.250 Gotta shut her up. 00:00:23.310 --> 00:00:23.970 Let's see. 00:00:24.210 --> 00:00:25.170 How can we shut her up? 00:00:25.380 --> 00:00:26.250 Let's do this. 00:00:26.430 --> 00:00:26.880 There we go. 00:00:27.480 --> 00:00:27.870 Shut up. 00:00:29.970 --> 00:00:36.680 So we did, 50 attempted trades up to this point, trading the very final 00:00:36.685 --> 00:00:40.200 hour using our zero dash DTE strategy. 00:00:41.300 --> 00:00:42.530 The results were pretty good. 00:00:42.580 --> 00:00:46.450 We had 10 trades or 10 instances where we did not take a trade. 00:00:46.450 --> 00:00:54.820 So there were actually only 40 trades, but we averaged a 60% win rate and it was. 00:00:55.210 --> 00:01:02.860 24 wins, 16 losses, and our returns ranged anywhere from 50 to 800%. 00:01:04.270 --> 00:01:07.380 So all in all, I would say that was a pretty good record. 00:01:07.860 --> 00:01:10.440 The second half wasn't as good as the first half. 00:01:10.860 --> 00:01:11.310 It's the way it goes. 00:01:12.780 --> 00:01:17.260 So in other words, the first 25 trades were way better than the second 25 trades. 00:01:18.130 --> 00:01:23.650 So we're starting brand new and we're going to be adding the EI futures 00:01:23.655 --> 00:01:26.350 as a potential trading vehicle. 00:01:27.280 --> 00:01:29.620 Before we were just doing SPX. 00:01:30.610 --> 00:01:34.040 And the reason for doing that is so that, we can show that you can also 00:01:34.040 --> 00:01:38.180 do this with very small accounts because you simply cannot use the 00:01:38.180 --> 00:01:42.140 SPX five days a week because you would be tagged with a small account. 00:01:42.200 --> 00:01:46.490 You'd be tagged a pattern day, trade pattern day trader. 00:01:47.060 --> 00:01:49.850 And you don't want to do that because if you do, they will shut 00:01:49.850 --> 00:01:51.350 down your account for 90 days. 00:01:52.370 --> 00:01:52.760 All right. 00:01:52.810 --> 00:01:54.520 We just got off of a trade. 00:01:54.580 --> 00:01:57.160 Well, actually a lot of people in the group may still be in the 00:01:57.160 --> 00:01:59.740 trade and it was pretty good. 00:01:59.770 --> 00:02:03.555 It was a one to seven risk to reward ratio. 00:02:03.555 --> 00:02:10.005 Most of the people got in probably around, oh, anywhere from a dollar to $3. 00:02:10.455 --> 00:02:15.565 And they're probably getting out now anywhere from $5 to $10 or more. 00:02:17.585 --> 00:02:25.105 So, all in all, anything from say a 50 to 500 or more percent return on capital. 00:02:26.365 --> 00:02:27.955 And there's still people there. 00:02:27.985 --> 00:02:29.155 I'm sure they're managing their trades. 00:02:29.155 --> 00:02:30.235 I had to get out early. 00:02:30.240 --> 00:02:31.855 So I left a lot of money on the table. 00:02:31.860 --> 00:02:33.415 Still made a lot of money. 00:02:34.075 --> 00:02:37.645 When you're managing a live stream and talking to people and trying to support, 00:02:37.695 --> 00:02:42.045 600 plus traders at the same time, it's a little bit difficult to manage your trade. 00:02:42.585 --> 00:02:46.395 So I just got out, took what I had and then that was fine for me, 00:02:48.225 --> 00:02:50.865 sacrificing myself for everybody else. 00:02:51.945 --> 00:02:52.275 All right. 00:02:52.275 --> 00:02:53.500 What is it that we do here? 00:02:53.500 --> 00:02:59.950 We, we trade options on the very final day of expiration on the S and P. 00:03:01.105 --> 00:03:05.575 We trade two different assets, two different derivatives of the S and 00:03:05.580 --> 00:03:09.295 P options on the E mini futures. 00:03:10.465 --> 00:03:15.805 That's the ES for most people and options on the index, the S SPX. 00:03:17.275 --> 00:03:23.585 And so they both have expirations that expire Monday, Tuesday, 00:03:23.585 --> 00:03:25.325 Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday. 00:03:25.805 --> 00:03:29.915 Tuesday and Thursday are fairly new additions to this lineup. 00:03:30.515 --> 00:03:34.215 They just added those two expirations in May, late M ay. 00:03:35.625 --> 00:03:38.645 And for the longest time, it was just Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, I like 00:03:38.645 --> 00:03:41.525 Monday, Wednesday, and Friday, cuz then you have Tuesday and Thursday off and 00:03:41.525 --> 00:03:45.715 you don't have to have this, like your head is in the sand five days a week. 00:03:45.955 --> 00:03:50.245 I like that cadence of having a day off, but I traded today. 00:03:52.045 --> 00:03:54.355 The trading on these is really, really good. 00:03:54.455 --> 00:03:55.925 The liquidity is fantastic. 00:03:56.825 --> 00:04:01.455 Very small spreads you can get in, you can get out you might have to 00:04:01.455 --> 00:04:05.060 change and replace a couple of times, one or two strikes to get your price. 00:04:05.150 --> 00:04:09.410 Sometimes things can get fast moving the gamma risk near the end of 00:04:09.410 --> 00:04:13.340 the day starts to increase because of the type of trades that we do. 00:04:13.340 --> 00:04:14.450 We do butterflies. 00:04:14.450 --> 00:04:20.015 And so as that profit curve, Filling up the butterfly that triangle it, 00:04:20.375 --> 00:04:24.125 you get this profit curve, that's like this, and that creates high gamma risk. 00:04:24.305 --> 00:04:29.545 Gamma risk being the rate of change in price, by the change in Delta. 00:04:29.575 --> 00:04:33.085 So in other words, if price is moving this way or that way, right. 00:04:33.325 --> 00:04:37.075 And it's sitting on a curve like this, right? 00:04:37.255 --> 00:04:44.125 Imagine that so price is your value is going up way up, way down, very fast. 00:04:45.065 --> 00:04:50.145 A lot of things that you can do to help that out is one, just try not to take it 00:04:50.145 --> 00:04:54.315 right to the very end, get out a little bit earlier and sacrifice maybe that last 00:04:54.585 --> 00:04:57.075 couple hundred bucks and just get out. 00:04:57.945 --> 00:05:00.285 That would be one possible solution. 00:05:00.285 --> 00:05:05.805 The other is in general, you could try to put on much wider strategies so that 00:05:06.195 --> 00:05:08.715 the gamma risk is reduced somewhat. 00:05:09.615 --> 00:05:11.155 By the width of your trade. 00:05:11.155 --> 00:05:15.625 So if you have a much wider butterfly, then the gamma risk is me less because 00:05:15.625 --> 00:05:19.755 the curve is not going to be, as like this, if you have a very narrow 00:05:20.085 --> 00:05:25.135 five or a 10 wide fly, then you, your gamma risk is gonna be really high. 00:05:25.135 --> 00:05:27.445 Cuz the profit curve has to go up and down like this. 00:05:27.450 --> 00:05:30.595 But if you have a a 20 or 25 wide fly, it's going to be much 00:05:30.625 --> 00:05:32.515 easier to manage your trade. 00:05:32.515 --> 00:05:36.025 As you go deeper into the expiration. 00:05:36.640 --> 00:05:38.350 and that's ultimately what we want to do. 00:05:38.350 --> 00:05:44.200 We want to go as deep as we can into that exploration so that we can get as much 00:05:44.205 --> 00:05:46.990 of that premium decay as we possibly can. 00:05:48.130 --> 00:05:49.510 Of course you're fighting against time. 00:05:49.510 --> 00:05:53.770 Things start getting a little volatile, so you have to make a choice and it's 00:05:53.770 --> 00:05:55.809 all sacrifice on which way to go. 00:05:56.140 --> 00:05:59.500 Of course, every once in a while, like today, Right now we're sitting 00:05:59.500 --> 00:06:04.169 right at the pin or the apex or the short strikes of our butterfly. 00:06:04.219 --> 00:06:07.945 If the market were to close right now, we would be at max profit. 00:06:09.085 --> 00:06:14.015 But if you get out right now with only 37 minutes to go, you're gonna 00:06:14.015 --> 00:06:16.085 get about 80% of that max profit. 00:06:16.085 --> 00:06:20.215 And that's pretty good when you consider that most people are putting on 20 wide. 00:06:20.919 --> 00:06:21.759 Spreads. 00:06:22.030 --> 00:06:27.749 So that'd be, $2,000 max profit minus the debit, which was about $200. 00:06:27.749 --> 00:06:31.059 Potentially $1,800, potential profit. 00:06:32.199 --> 00:06:34.119 And then maybe 80% of that. 00:06:34.119 --> 00:06:38.549 And so you're really talking about, oh, I don't know, $1,500 00:06:38.549 --> 00:06:40.829 that you could get right now. 00:06:41.729 --> 00:06:45.239 Getting out with plenty of time left in the market, or you could hold on and 00:06:45.239 --> 00:06:49.759 see if you can make that last three or 400 bucks that's completely up to you. 00:06:51.109 --> 00:06:54.579 But, I like the sound of easy money and you got it in hand. 00:06:54.619 --> 00:06:55.399 Why risk it? 00:06:55.449 --> 00:07:00.519 So we got some people online. 00:07:00.519 --> 00:07:02.769 Hey, where is everybody by the way, are you there? 00:07:02.829 --> 00:07:03.939 Are you watching this thing? 00:07:05.109 --> 00:07:07.239 , they're probably all managing their trades right now. 00:07:07.239 --> 00:07:10.539 So I don't blame 'em for not getting onto the stream, but if you are out 00:07:10.544 --> 00:07:12.159 there say, hello, how you doing? 00:07:12.759 --> 00:07:18.264 We got, we got Craig here and Les and Mohamed, how you doing? 00:07:19.494 --> 00:07:20.874 Glad all could show up. 00:07:21.054 --> 00:07:24.084 I know that there's plenty of plenty more of you out there. 00:07:25.284 --> 00:07:26.004 Uh, yep. 00:07:26.514 --> 00:07:29.184 Is Dan we've got, oh, everyone's gonna show up now. 00:07:29.184 --> 00:07:29.694 There we are. 00:07:29.754 --> 00:07:30.354 They're all there. 00:07:35.004 --> 00:07:35.634 A one. 00:07:35.634 --> 00:07:37.289 How you doing is here. 00:07:37.379 --> 00:07:38.069 All right. 00:07:40.109 --> 00:07:41.129 Perry, etic. 00:07:41.129 --> 00:07:42.389 I don't know what that means. 00:07:42.869 --> 00:07:44.219 Naasha and Donald. 00:07:44.279 --> 00:07:45.959 All right, look, everybody's showing up now. 00:07:48.224 --> 00:07:49.484 Alan, how you doing? 00:07:50.534 --> 00:07:51.014 All right. 00:07:51.674 --> 00:07:54.244 So we're gonna try to bring this into the end of the day. 00:07:54.294 --> 00:07:55.584 Now here's the big question. 00:07:55.644 --> 00:07:56.694 Where is it going? 00:07:57.054 --> 00:08:00.919 Are we gonna have a continuation move through or are we going to 00:08:00.949 --> 00:08:02.539 maybe retrace some of this move? 00:08:02.544 --> 00:08:02.689 All right. 00:08:06.139 --> 00:08:07.309 We got a question here. 00:08:08.494 --> 00:08:12.424 How did you come up with the one trade probability of 75% and one trade? 00:08:12.634 --> 00:08:16.804 Oh, he's talking about an example that I gave in the discord. 00:08:17.804 --> 00:08:18.704 How did I come up with it? 00:08:18.704 --> 00:08:22.984 I was using it as an illustrative type of thing, if you had a choice between. 00:08:24.094 --> 00:08:29.074 Two trades one where you had a 75, 80% probability of profiting price 00:08:29.074 --> 00:08:30.244 was already sitting right there. 00:08:30.244 --> 00:08:34.214 You could put on a nice little credit spread and ride it out and probably a 00:08:34.214 --> 00:08:36.164 really good chance that you would profit. 00:08:36.704 --> 00:08:39.404 And you would probably make, maybe let's say a hundred, 00:08:39.524 --> 00:08:40.694 maybe a couple hundred dollars. 00:08:41.564 --> 00:08:42.464 Sounds like easy money. 00:08:42.464 --> 00:08:42.764 Right. 00:08:43.154 --> 00:08:44.384 But the risk is pretty high. 00:08:44.484 --> 00:08:46.064 So if you happen to run out of. 00:08:46.964 --> 00:08:51.434 You would suffer a pretty big loss, maybe a thousand bucks or so, or 00:08:51.464 --> 00:08:53.894 would you take the trade that's sitting way out of the money. 00:08:53.894 --> 00:08:57.854 It's only a 35% chance of actually making anything. 00:08:58.094 --> 00:09:01.514 Your risk is super small though, like 150 bucks, but if you fall into it, you 00:09:01.514 --> 00:09:04.154 make 2000 bucks, which would you choose? 00:09:04.334 --> 00:09:08.624 Would you take the easy money, that 200 bucks with the risk of losing 00:09:08.624 --> 00:09:12.584 a thousand or would you go for the much lower probability trade? 00:09:13.979 --> 00:09:17.379 Where your risk is minimal, but the reward is huge. 00:09:19.209 --> 00:09:25.209 Now I would take the long shot every day of the week, every day of the week, the 00:09:25.209 --> 00:09:31.599 long shot, the asymmetric trade by far, if you take that trade day in day out 00:09:31.929 --> 00:09:35.259 will absolutely blow up your account. 00:09:35.289 --> 00:09:38.919 In other words, you'll gain and you'll have a much better positive expectancy. 00:09:39.954 --> 00:09:41.244 The high probability trade. 00:09:41.334 --> 00:09:42.564 It's just no contest. 00:09:43.554 --> 00:09:47.994 However, what most people would do is they would go for the high probability trade. 00:09:48.354 --> 00:09:50.604 And that is because that's what they're conditioned to do. 00:09:50.664 --> 00:09:53.094 They think that putting on the high probability trade 00:09:53.094 --> 00:09:53.994 is the way you make money. 00:09:54.294 --> 00:09:57.744 And I'm telling you the high probability trade is the way that you lose money. 00:09:58.644 --> 00:10:03.384 The low probability trade maintaining and containing your risk is by 00:10:03.384 --> 00:10:05.994 far a, a much better way to go. 00:10:07.224 --> 00:10:08.484 And that's basically what we do here. 00:10:09.684 --> 00:10:11.064 Zero dash DTE. 00:10:11.484 --> 00:10:15.834 Now all the other zero DTE services, they do the high probability way. 00:10:16.114 --> 00:10:19.054 We've got plenty of those people from those services that have come here 00:10:19.444 --> 00:10:21.784 telling of the woes that they have there. 00:10:21.784 --> 00:10:22.894 They're not making any money. 00:10:23.074 --> 00:10:25.204 They're going through complete anxiety all the time. 00:10:25.354 --> 00:10:28.414 They have one loss that wipes out multiple weeks of profits. 00:10:28.954 --> 00:10:30.694 Those type of things never happen. 00:10:37.789 --> 00:10:41.209 Quick explanation of the Batman trade in any situation where it 00:10:41.209 --> 00:10:42.979 makes sense in the final hour. 00:10:44.509 --> 00:10:48.769 Um, it might make some sense, but I don't particularly like the Batman trade. 00:10:48.859 --> 00:10:52.549 The Batman trade basically is where you're putting on two symmetrical 00:10:52.549 --> 00:10:57.199 butterflies and flanking them on either side of the current price at the money. 00:10:57.859 --> 00:11:00.499 And the idea is that you're gonna move one way or the other. 00:11:00.969 --> 00:11:03.879 Maybe you stay right in the middle and then you lose on both. 00:11:03.879 --> 00:11:07.389 But if you lose, if you move, if price moves one way or the 00:11:07.389 --> 00:11:09.009 other, then you're gonna profit. 00:11:09.099 --> 00:11:12.699 The problem is that you're doubling your risk. 00:11:13.629 --> 00:11:15.789 You're doubling your risk and you're having your profit. 00:11:17.229 --> 00:11:22.479 And that's a problem as opposed to just taking the asymmetric chance 00:11:22.479 --> 00:11:25.089 of getting one or the other, Yeah. 00:11:25.790 --> 00:11:27.920 That's really what we're here for. 00:11:27.920 --> 00:11:31.969 I mean that, what, I just went through this whole idea of taking asy asymmetric 00:11:31.969 --> 00:11:37.699 trades, small risk to large potential profit has a positive expectancy. 00:11:37.879 --> 00:11:40.399 You do not have that when you start diminishing it. 00:11:40.399 --> 00:11:42.170 As a matter of fact, I would like to go the other way. 00:11:42.739 --> 00:11:46.189 Instead of putting on Batman trade, I would put on trades that have even 00:11:46.189 --> 00:11:50.990 lesser probability of winning with even less cost, but there's a minimal 00:11:51.290 --> 00:11:52.790 amount of cost that you can Inc. 00:11:53.570 --> 00:11:56.410 That's because the commissions on the trades. 00:11:56.469 --> 00:11:59.259 So there's only so little that you can create the risk. 00:11:59.949 --> 00:12:04.639 And, there is some level of expectation, how far out of the 00:12:04.639 --> 00:12:07.639 money can you place something in and truly expect to be a winner. 00:12:07.879 --> 00:12:11.059 Once you go too far out, then you might as well just not play. 00:12:11.839 --> 00:12:14.479 So there's some acceptable limit. 00:12:15.049 --> 00:12:20.149 But trying to get really closer, trying to stack up these trades so 00:12:20.149 --> 00:12:21.529 that you can always be a winner. 00:12:22.639 --> 00:12:25.279 That's really antithetical to everything that we're talking about here. 00:12:25.894 --> 00:12:28.684 Can I talk about the hanging trades for overnight? 00:12:29.844 --> 00:12:32.304 We will be doing some of those as well. 00:12:32.574 --> 00:12:32.814 Now. 00:12:32.814 --> 00:12:35.094 What they're talk, what they're referring to hanging trade. 00:12:37.179 --> 00:12:41.469 and in essence, every trade that we do is what I would consider a hanging trade. 00:12:42.429 --> 00:12:45.459 But for most people, a hanging trade is one where you put a trade 00:12:45.459 --> 00:12:49.689 that's way out of the money and it's there just in case there's an 00:12:49.689 --> 00:12:51.789 overnight move or some surprise move. 00:12:52.299 --> 00:12:55.699 And your technical analysis probably would never pick this up. 00:12:56.069 --> 00:13:01.759 It would seem like a mini black Swan event, but when you do hit. 00:13:02.759 --> 00:13:06.179 Price, and it does trigger and you do get into the trade. 00:13:06.449 --> 00:13:09.779 Usually those trades, first of all, cost practically nothing to get into. 00:13:10.349 --> 00:13:14.609 And the returns are spectacular compared to the risk that you take. 00:13:15.209 --> 00:13:17.549 So those are trades that we would. 00:13:17.669 --> 00:13:21.359 Quite frankly, every day that we put a trade on is in essence 00:13:21.359 --> 00:13:25.559 from at least from most traders' perspective are hanging trades. 00:13:25.559 --> 00:13:28.139 They're wondering, how in the world could you possibly put that trade on? 00:13:28.559 --> 00:13:29.729 So here's an example. 00:13:31.019 --> 00:13:33.179 I'll show you today's trade for instance. 00:13:36.369 --> 00:13:39.299 Here's today's trade the blue box represents the 00:13:39.299 --> 00:13:42.149 spread that we put on, right? 00:13:42.239 --> 00:13:43.469 So that's about a fly spread. 00:13:43.474 --> 00:13:47.159 It was centered on 38, 20 and it's 20 wide. 00:13:47.539 --> 00:13:52.619 We put it on when price was way up here somewhere, right way up here. 00:13:52.669 --> 00:13:52.909 Some. 00:13:54.674 --> 00:13:57.224 So consequently the trade didn't cost us a lot of money. 00:13:57.224 --> 00:14:01.484 Some people I was able to actually, get into, actually, we put it way 00:14:01.489 --> 00:14:04.034 over here, somewhere over here. 00:14:04.874 --> 00:14:09.349 And so price went against us and I was able to actually add to the trade 00:14:09.949 --> 00:14:12.229 to reduce my cost basis even more. 00:14:12.234 --> 00:14:14.799 So now my trade was, very cheap. 00:14:16.059 --> 00:14:19.839 Able to reduce my cost basis by more than 60 cents per contract. 00:14:21.469 --> 00:14:23.989 So what were the odds that we were gonna come back down? 00:14:23.989 --> 00:14:26.359 Some people were thinking, oh, it looks like we're gonna break out. 00:14:26.389 --> 00:14:28.249 As a matter of fact, one of our members said, oh, it looks like 00:14:28.249 --> 00:14:29.599 we're we were going to the upside. 00:14:29.599 --> 00:14:33.019 And I said, I don't know, looks like a 50 50 proposition to me. 00:14:34.039 --> 00:14:38.179 And so we basically put on what some would consider a hanging trade one 00:14:38.179 --> 00:14:39.439 where it's way out of the money. 00:14:40.489 --> 00:14:41.869 Odds are like, you. 00:14:42.544 --> 00:14:46.084 One part risk to 7, 8, 9, 10 times reward. 00:14:47.944 --> 00:14:49.744 What are the chances that you're gonna get that? 00:14:49.924 --> 00:14:52.624 It's probably about a 30% chance of pinning. 00:14:52.724 --> 00:14:58.324 A 30% chance of actually just getting into one of the long wings, right? 00:14:58.324 --> 00:15:02.584 At the very edge of the trade, right around here, probably about a 10% 00:15:02.584 --> 00:15:05.644 chance of getting right down to the. 00:15:06.469 --> 00:15:09.409 The center strikes right here where you would achieve max profit. 00:15:10.519 --> 00:15:11.489 Now, what happened? 00:15:11.539 --> 00:15:17.659 We apparently beat all those odds and we came down and everyone's able to get 00:15:17.659 --> 00:15:22.839 out of their trade, with plenty of time in the market and with returns where they 00:15:22.839 --> 00:15:27.579 put up maybe a couple hundred bucks and they make a thousand, 2,003,000 bucks. 00:15:31.224 --> 00:15:35.784 So that's basically how our, , how our service goes. 00:15:36.274 --> 00:15:39.684 , now we don't get those all the time, because we're hanging trades 00:15:39.774 --> 00:15:43.794 in other words, because our risk is so small, we don't have to win 00:15:43.794 --> 00:15:46.224 very often when we win, we win big. 00:15:46.254 --> 00:15:49.494 When we lose, we lose really small, really small. 00:15:52.344 --> 00:15:52.794 So. 00:15:53.244 --> 00:15:54.234 It's not unusual. 00:15:54.234 --> 00:15:57.924 If you had say a couple hundred thousand dollars that you were trading to not 00:15:57.924 --> 00:16:02.354 really trade much more than a half a percent per position . And with that, 00:16:02.354 --> 00:16:05.984 you could produce a very, very nice return over the course of a year. 00:16:06.794 --> 00:16:12.664 I'm saying with very little risk and very little anxiety return, 2030, 00:16:12.934 --> 00:16:18.574 maybe even 40% on a, on an account that size and risking very little. 00:16:18.884 --> 00:16:19.209 Really? 00:16:19.209 --> 00:16:25.189 And your draw downs are super small, in the order of six, 7% 00:16:25.189 --> 00:16:27.169 draw downs, tops, max draw downs. 00:16:32.099 --> 00:16:34.769 Let's see here we have another question about overnight. 00:16:35.859 --> 00:16:41.199 Or where would you put it? 00:16:41.289 --> 00:16:42.339 Oh, it's the same question. 00:16:42.339 --> 00:16:43.629 I didn't read the whole way through. 00:16:44.094 --> 00:16:47.354 Would you put the overnight trade, before market closed, before 4:00 PM or right 00:16:47.354 --> 00:16:48.764 after the market opened at 6:00 PM. 00:16:49.824 --> 00:16:56.754 Generally what we've done in the past is put 'em on around 9, 9 30 at night. 00:16:58.224 --> 00:17:02.554 And that seems to give us our best risk to reward and it, at least the 00:17:02.584 --> 00:17:04.354 Asian market has opened by then. 00:17:04.714 --> 00:17:05.824 And you can get an idea. 00:17:06.694 --> 00:17:11.354 If you're overseas and you're up during the European open, then you can monitor 00:17:11.354 --> 00:17:14.174 that trade and find out whether or not it's going to be a good risk or 00:17:14.179 --> 00:17:16.214 not, or maybe even add to the trade. 00:17:16.604 --> 00:17:21.114 Typically those trades where we're out of 'em, by the morning, sometimes 00:17:21.119 --> 00:17:22.254 we'll hold them right into it. 00:17:22.259 --> 00:17:25.374 And we've had some trades where we've brought it right to and pinned 00:17:25.824 --> 00:17:27.324 and made unbelievable profits. 00:17:27.324 --> 00:17:32.064 Sometimes as much as 1500, 1800% return on our capital. 00:17:36.129 --> 00:17:40.149 Yeah, so that, that's one of the advantages of trading the Emen E futures 00:17:40.329 --> 00:17:42.459 that you can trade 23 hours a day. 00:17:43.449 --> 00:17:48.159 And so the market, the session for the Emen E opens actually 00:17:48.429 --> 00:17:52.269 six o'clock the previous day, six o'clock at night, the previous day. 00:17:53.349 --> 00:17:56.859 So, like I said, we wait until about 9, 9 30, get a read on the market and 00:17:56.859 --> 00:18:00.999 then decide, in the market profile or the volume profile and figure out where 00:18:00.999 --> 00:18:02.589 is the best place to place a trade. 00:18:03.039 --> 00:18:07.359 And we can typically put something super far out of the money, but also very wide. 00:18:07.359 --> 00:18:11.019 So we have a very high probability of touch. 00:18:11.259 --> 00:18:14.709 In other words, there's a good probability that at some point from 00:18:14.709 --> 00:18:19.659 now until the expiration, that price is going to come inside or touch. 00:18:20.439 --> 00:18:22.699 Profit tent of, of that strategy. 00:18:23.589 --> 00:18:28.959 And because we put on such small amounts of risk, usually on the order of, 00:18:28.989 --> 00:18:35.229 one to 10 or one to 12 or one to 15, one part risk to say 15 parts reward. 00:18:36.069 --> 00:18:37.029 It doesn't take a lot. 00:18:37.029 --> 00:18:40.569 Sometimes we don't even have to enter inside the profit tent and 00:18:40.569 --> 00:18:47.289 we can still manage to win triple digit returns, a hundred, 150, 250%. 00:18:49.284 --> 00:18:53.184 I'm sure that most people trading spreads would love to be able 00:18:53.184 --> 00:18:56.064 to do that or iron Condors. 00:18:56.064 --> 00:18:59.274 They'll never see that kind of return ever the best they'll ever 00:18:59.274 --> 00:19:02.794 see is maybe 10% of their risk max. 00:19:04.654 --> 00:19:08.464 And so when they hear numbers like routinely getting 150, 200%, 00:19:08.464 --> 00:19:10.144 they, it just doesn't compute. 00:19:10.804 --> 00:19:12.404 But that's basically what we're looking. 00:19:16.174 --> 00:19:16.534 All right. 00:19:16.584 --> 00:19:17.724 Yeah, there's a good possibility. 00:19:17.724 --> 00:19:22.104 This trade runs right through our spread, which is all fine. 00:19:22.424 --> 00:19:25.784 But now we have to figure out, is it gonna do that or is it gonna 00:19:25.784 --> 00:19:31.034 pin, huh, man, this is what I think. 00:19:31.034 --> 00:19:33.584 I think they were gonna come down to 3,800, I think maybe 00:19:33.584 --> 00:19:35.294 3,800 is the place to go. 00:19:36.524 --> 00:19:39.084 I would say 38 hundreds probably are mark. 00:19:39.204 --> 00:19:42.264 And let's take a look at the options chain. 00:19:44.574 --> 00:19:45.684 Oh, I have to bring it over there. 00:19:45.684 --> 00:19:47.064 It's on the wrong monitor. 00:19:47.134 --> 00:19:50.284 According to the expected move, there's only about 10 points to go. 00:19:50.284 --> 00:19:51.784 So that kind of points to, 00:19:57.214 --> 00:19:58.774 I need to see more strikes. 00:20:01.474 --> 00:20:01.684 Yeah. 00:20:01.684 --> 00:20:03.304 3,800 right here. 00:20:03.724 --> 00:20:04.684 That's gonna be tough. 00:20:07.204 --> 00:20:08.944 What would a butterfly give us right there? 00:20:10.668 --> 00:20:11.358 What happened to it? 00:20:13.788 --> 00:20:14.718 Have to do this again. 00:20:15.752 --> 00:20:21.392 So our probability of touch at 3,800 is about 50%. 00:20:21.722 --> 00:20:24.542 That's usually what we like or 30% is a good number two. 00:20:24.542 --> 00:20:25.382 So let's try 30. 00:20:26.787 --> 00:20:32.097 If we made our wings 10 wide, then we would be within 75% probability of touch. 00:20:37.957 --> 00:20:39.157 We're already in profit. 00:20:39.157 --> 00:20:45.337 So if we move down into the 3,800 region, but let's make 'em a little wider. 00:20:53.287 --> 00:20:54.217 Make 'em 10 wide. 00:20:56.917 --> 00:20:58.537 See what kind of wrist to reward? 00:20:59.107 --> 00:21:01.182 I don't know that risk to reward is high for me. 00:21:01.842 --> 00:21:02.772 I don't like that. 00:21:08.802 --> 00:21:09.312 Hmm. 00:21:11.622 --> 00:21:12.942 Let's take a look at the chart again. 00:21:13.302 --> 00:21:13.602 Whoop. 00:21:13.992 --> 00:21:14.622 Everything went back. 00:21:19.887 --> 00:21:22.947 Let's back up a little bit, see what we're dealing with. 00:21:24.023 --> 00:21:27.553 So this is the spread that we put on this cyan box today. 00:21:29.863 --> 00:21:31.843 The right hand side is the end of the market. 00:21:31.913 --> 00:21:33.983 The left hand side is where we entered the trade. 00:21:34.073 --> 00:21:36.503 The top and bottom is the width of the butterfly. 00:21:37.163 --> 00:21:39.473 Sent it on 39, 20, which is right there. 00:21:40.733 --> 00:21:42.413 And we went through it. 00:21:42.533 --> 00:21:44.483 Here's an LVN right here. 00:21:44.513 --> 00:21:49.913 It's probably looks like it's gonna come down here possibly either bounce 00:21:49.913 --> 00:21:55.133 or move through to the next value node, which is T zero B going through. 00:21:55.163 --> 00:21:57.803 These are child nodes from T zero a to T zero. 00:21:57.803 --> 00:21:59.543 B question. 00:21:59.593 --> 00:22:03.098 Is it gonna do it right now in the next 20 minutes, highly unlikely. 00:22:04.088 --> 00:22:08.198 I'm gonna guess and say that maybe we'll just pull back a little bit and then come 00:22:08.198 --> 00:22:12.998 back up to T zero a and we'll call this a rejection and come right back up here. 00:22:13.718 --> 00:22:15.218 So that's what I'm gonna choose. 00:22:15.223 --> 00:22:20.043 I'm gonna say that, 38 20, which was our original trade today is 00:22:20.043 --> 00:22:21.843 the, probably the best trade to do. 00:22:21.843 --> 00:22:23.703 And we'll probably get some good pricing on it. 00:22:23.703 --> 00:22:24.333 Let's try that. 00:22:25.538 --> 00:22:26.108 Alright. 00:22:27.000 --> 00:22:30.090 15 wide is a little much. 00:22:30.090 --> 00:22:31.530 Let's go for 10 wide, 00:22:32.431 --> 00:22:32.731 man. 00:22:32.731 --> 00:22:34.891 It is hard to get a good risk to reward here. 00:22:36.125 --> 00:22:39.935 $2 on the ES that's really, um, much less than that. 00:22:39.935 --> 00:22:40.955 That's half of that. 00:22:41.135 --> 00:22:44.495 So that's about a dollar or in other words, a hundred dollars 00:22:44.495 --> 00:22:49.475 risk to make about, $350, $360, man. 00:22:50.645 --> 00:22:51.815 I don't like those odds. 00:22:53.405 --> 00:22:54.005 I really don't. 00:22:55.673 --> 00:22:59.603 Maybe if we push it out, some maybe we can get a, like a last minute move. 00:23:00.263 --> 00:23:03.833 That's the thing is the move more likely to go up or down today? 00:23:05.873 --> 00:23:09.163 That's a hard one to tell let's zoom into a three minute 00:23:09.163 --> 00:23:10.543 chart and look at the sucker. 00:23:11.653 --> 00:23:11.803 Yeah. 00:23:11.873 --> 00:23:13.913 It's accelerating right into the end here. 00:23:13.913 --> 00:23:15.713 We have a little bit of resistance. 00:23:16.763 --> 00:23:21.983 Or support as we came into this LVN at 3,800, I think that we're 00:23:21.983 --> 00:23:23.333 gonna move right through it. 00:23:23.843 --> 00:23:25.073 I think that's what's gonna happen. 00:23:25.073 --> 00:23:27.263 And then overnight we're gonna continue to move through it. 00:23:27.263 --> 00:23:32.063 So maybe 3,800 is the way to go and maybe make it super narrow. 00:23:34.043 --> 00:23:34.853 So let's try that. 00:23:35.945 --> 00:23:36.785 Yeah, I don't know. 00:23:37.235 --> 00:23:38.825 The pricing just is horrible. 00:23:40.595 --> 00:23:41.105 All of this. 00:23:41.155 --> 00:23:43.885 I'm gonna pass that's my, that's my best judgment. 00:23:43.885 --> 00:23:45.535 We just can't get good pricing here. 00:23:46.585 --> 00:23:50.095 So I am going to pass on this one. 00:23:51.425 --> 00:23:54.075 That's a little bit of a disappointment, but normally we 00:23:54.075 --> 00:23:56.355 can get much better risk to reward. 00:23:56.875 --> 00:23:58.855 But right now that's simply not happening. 00:23:58.905 --> 00:24:01.905 The best it looks like we can get is one to three and we are 00:24:01.995 --> 00:24:03.255 usually looking for one to. 00:24:04.575 --> 00:24:08.425 Without, those type of numbers are just not worth it for us to trade. 00:24:09.474 --> 00:24:09.714 Right. 00:24:09.714 --> 00:24:11.304 Click it, and then create a closing order. 00:24:11.309 --> 00:24:12.264 Why would I wanna do that? 00:24:13.334 --> 00:24:15.924 Oh, oh, you're talking to somebody else. 00:24:18.334 --> 00:24:20.404 Yeah, a hundred dollars to make three 50. 00:24:20.404 --> 00:24:21.784 I, I don't like those odds at. 00:24:23.606 --> 00:24:27.821 The more interesting thing would for us right now is will this return to 38, 00:24:27.821 --> 00:24:29.876 20 and then pin a trade for the day. 00:24:31.554 --> 00:24:33.824 So that's, this trade that we're currently in. 00:24:34.919 --> 00:24:38.699 I've already exited the trade, by the way, I think I told you that I had to exit 00:24:38.699 --> 00:24:41.909 because well, I'm doing the live stream. 00:24:42.059 --> 00:24:43.529 I'm supporting a bunch of people. 00:24:43.709 --> 00:24:45.479 I can't do all of that at once. 00:24:46.709 --> 00:24:47.039 Yeah. 00:24:47.119 --> 00:24:52.379 Maybe as I had said earlier, the move was to go back up into T zero 00:24:52.559 --> 00:24:56.919 a this volume node, because we are doing kind of a retracement. 00:24:58.316 --> 00:24:58.586 Right. 00:24:59.246 --> 00:25:01.706 Uh, Perry pat says I can't close a trade. 00:25:02.426 --> 00:25:06.756 Make sure you are using 00:25:11.576 --> 00:25:11.729 25 cent increments. 00:25:11.729 --> 00:25:15.064 A little misspelling there, but hopefully that will help. 00:25:15.664 --> 00:25:19.204 But typically when you have a return, that's over $5. 00:25:21.306 --> 00:25:21.606 Yeah, streams. 00:25:21.646 --> 00:25:27.846 I already looked at 3,800 may maybe now that it's moved away from it, but 00:25:27.876 --> 00:25:29.306 we've only got, there's still plenty of. 00:25:30.550 --> 00:25:35.140 Yeah, but see, even here, the man, the risk to reward is horrible. 00:25:36.103 --> 00:25:38.083 It's getting better, but it's still horrible. 00:25:39.073 --> 00:25:40.603 What happens if I go five wide? 00:25:40.663 --> 00:25:44.743 I know that normally we're like, oh, five wide Ernie, what the hell are you doing? 00:25:45.853 --> 00:25:49.873 But can we get, oh, now see, this's the kind of risk to re reward that I like. 00:25:50.563 --> 00:25:51.493 Yeah, I'll do that. 00:25:51.583 --> 00:25:51.973 I'll do. 00:25:53.458 --> 00:25:54.028 I'll do that. 00:25:54.953 --> 00:25:55.883 I'll take this trade. 00:25:57.019 --> 00:25:59.059 Let's see if I, oh, you got, there we go. 00:26:00.499 --> 00:26:02.209 I will Def definitely take that trade. 00:26:02.209 --> 00:26:03.919 So here's the trade that I just took. 00:26:04.759 --> 00:26:05.389 What was it? 00:26:05.439 --> 00:26:07.389 45 cents or $22. 00:26:08.589 --> 00:26:09.609 So let's see what happens. 00:26:10.792 --> 00:26:11.602 Yeah, I'll take that trade. 00:26:11.652 --> 00:26:13.782 What the hell I just made about 2000 bucks on my other 00:26:13.782 --> 00:26:15.942 trade so I can afford 45 bucks. 00:26:16.920 --> 00:26:18.120 Let's see if it will move down. 00:26:20.010 --> 00:26:23.820 I was, I just wanted to be known that sh pushed me into this trade. 00:26:24.210 --> 00:26:25.860 So if I lose it's all his. 00:26:27.306 --> 00:26:27.576 All right. 00:26:27.576 --> 00:26:33.726 I'm glad that, um, paretic per pet was able to get out. 00:26:33.731 --> 00:26:38.476 It looks like putting the the limit order on 25 cent 00:26:38.476 --> 00:26:39.976 increments allowed him to get out. 00:26:41.146 --> 00:26:43.876 Once you get over $5 of return. 00:26:46.001 --> 00:26:48.136 Especially if you're in think or swim, I don't know about the other 00:26:48.256 --> 00:26:53.026 platforms, but you have to put your limit price in 25 cent increments. 00:26:53.176 --> 00:26:55.636 Otherwise it won't get you out when you're under that. 00:26:55.636 --> 00:26:57.076 You can go 5 cent increments. 00:26:57.256 --> 00:26:57.316 No 00:26:58.324 --> 00:26:58.834 problem. 00:27:00.814 --> 00:27:01.654 Always glad to help. 00:27:02.993 --> 00:27:03.533 So, I don't know. 00:27:03.563 --> 00:27:05.243 I don't know if my trade's gonna work out or not. 00:27:05.243 --> 00:27:05.873 It doesn't matter. 00:27:08.333 --> 00:27:09.823 We had such a great day today. 00:27:09.828 --> 00:27:10.693 It was a lot of fun. 00:27:11.383 --> 00:27:13.813 I also did another podcast earlier today. 00:27:13.813 --> 00:27:18.293 You might wanna check that out where I talk about the value of asymmetry and 00:27:18.323 --> 00:27:24.903 really why so many traders are fooling themselves thinking that they might have 00:27:24.903 --> 00:27:31.353 a chance at sustained returns of 30, 50, or a hundred percent or more every year. 00:27:32.043 --> 00:27:35.853 And when the vast majority of people don't make a dollar. 00:27:36.963 --> 00:27:42.033 When I say the vast majority, like over 90% of most people never make a profit. 00:27:42.603 --> 00:27:47.193 And you think you're going to have sustained profits of 30, 40, 50% a year. 00:27:47.193 --> 00:27:47.823 It's crazy. 00:27:48.573 --> 00:27:52.833 If you did, you would be in the elite of elite of elite traders and 00:27:52.833 --> 00:27:56.903 people would be banging your door down, wanting you to trade for them. 00:27:57.863 --> 00:27:58.433 Trust me on that. 00:27:58.433 --> 00:27:59.363 That's the way it would be. 00:28:01.283 --> 00:28:04.853 And that is all because people are predisposed to want to use 00:28:05.303 --> 00:28:07.853 high probability trading setups. 00:28:08.783 --> 00:28:09.983 It's kinda like a siren. 00:28:10.043 --> 00:28:16.583 The story of was that, who is that the story of in the Bible, in the sirens 00:28:18.023 --> 00:28:24.243 is that Hercules, I can't remember, but the sirens, They lure the, travelers 00:28:24.243 --> 00:28:27.733 or the sailors, into their island. 00:28:28.363 --> 00:28:29.743 And then they eat them. 00:28:32.054 --> 00:28:32.744 I know crazy. 00:28:34.194 --> 00:28:37.584 We're all attracted to shiny objects thing, things that may look 00:28:37.584 --> 00:28:42.934 intuitively great, but they aren't high probability strategies simply do 00:28:42.934 --> 00:28:45.214 not have a long term positive expect. 00:28:46.771 --> 00:28:47.611 Oh, Ulysses. 00:28:47.641 --> 00:28:48.211 Yes. 00:28:50.641 --> 00:28:51.121 Thank you. 00:28:51.781 --> 00:28:53.251 I should know that I'm Greek, right? 00:28:54.901 --> 00:28:57.931 The hell you doing Ernie know you're a Greek mythology. 00:28:58.801 --> 00:28:58.951 All right. 00:28:58.951 --> 00:28:59.251 So eight minutes. 00:29:04.040 --> 00:29:04.970 oh, it's that's right. 00:29:04.970 --> 00:29:05.930 It's from the Odyssey. 00:29:08.030 --> 00:29:08.480 You're right. 00:29:08.660 --> 00:29:10.890 See, what the hell am I talking about? 00:29:11.970 --> 00:29:14.670 I am one pathetic individual here. 00:29:18.090 --> 00:29:18.360 All right. 00:29:18.360 --> 00:29:19.470 Let's check this trade again. 00:29:19.470 --> 00:29:21.330 See if we're making any headway here. 00:29:23.820 --> 00:29:24.840 We gotta get moving. 00:29:24.900 --> 00:29:26.700 It's gotta move really quick. 00:29:28.530 --> 00:29:29.940 No, I don't think it's gonna look. 00:29:29.940 --> 00:29:30.960 It, did this retrace. 00:29:30.960 --> 00:29:32.850 It's gonna go all the way down there again. 00:29:33.240 --> 00:29:35.490 It'll probably do it after the market closes. 00:29:35.590 --> 00:29:39.400 The idea for this trade by the way, it's not that we're sitting here 00:29:39.400 --> 00:29:46.830 doing all kinds technical analysis of where we think price is gonna go. 00:29:47.160 --> 00:29:51.300 We're basically putting our strategy somewhere in the vicinity, hopefully 00:29:51.305 --> 00:29:58.075 backstop by some sort of market structure, whether it's a Val, a value node or an 00:29:58.515 --> 00:30:03.385 LVN, and see if price will come down and come into our parlor, so to speak. 00:30:04.672 --> 00:30:05.842 Oh, this is a problem. 00:30:07.432 --> 00:30:10.342 Mohamed says I can see you're tired from all the excitement. 00:30:12.142 --> 00:30:13.042 do I look tired? 00:30:13.912 --> 00:30:16.042 Maybe I have to change the lighting here. 00:30:17.692 --> 00:30:20.842 It's probably the beard, I have not shaven for a while. 00:30:22.251 --> 00:30:24.201 Is is, uh, betting on 38 30. 00:30:24.311 --> 00:30:25.391 We're all rooting for you. 00:30:25.451 --> 00:30:26.711 It doesn't look like my 38. 00:30:26.711 --> 00:30:27.701 Hundred's gonna work out. 00:30:29.321 --> 00:30:32.011 It's gotta drop dramatically in just a few minutes. 00:30:32.803 --> 00:30:38.653 Les is saying it's Jason and the Argonauts is that, who is that? 00:30:38.653 --> 00:30:40.093 Who encountered the siren. 00:30:40.872 --> 00:30:42.432 Everybody has a different version. 00:30:45.042 --> 00:30:46.812 We'll have to do a Google search. 00:30:48.220 --> 00:30:48.550 Dr. 00:30:48.550 --> 00:30:52.910 Russell says, if you are still in the 38 20 trade, when would you exit, 00:30:52.940 --> 00:30:54.920 how would you manage into the close? 00:30:55.370 --> 00:30:56.720 I talked about that earlier. 00:30:56.780 --> 00:30:58.280 I said that if you were. 00:30:59.330 --> 00:31:02.120 And this was the, our first pass by 38 20. 00:31:02.540 --> 00:31:05.780 I said, if you had multiple contracts, then I would take 00:31:05.930 --> 00:31:08.000 enough off to guarantee a profit. 00:31:09.410 --> 00:31:13.400 So let's say you had four contract or four positions on four flies. 00:31:13.700 --> 00:31:14.720 I would take three of 'em off. 00:31:14.720 --> 00:31:15.650 Let the other one ride. 00:31:18.110 --> 00:31:20.990 So if you only have two, then take at least one of 'em off and let it 00:31:20.990 --> 00:31:26.240 ride anything that would guarantee you a and of course, anything 00:31:26.270 --> 00:31:27.710 really, you could probably take off. 00:31:28.445 --> 00:31:32.015 One out of three and still guarantee you a profit, but I would take the 00:31:32.015 --> 00:31:33.965 majority off to guarantee a good profit. 00:31:35.535 --> 00:31:41.025 And then see if that last one will pin or you can do what I did where I really 00:31:41.025 --> 00:31:44.355 didn't have the time to manage and just take it all off and be happy with the 00:31:44.355 --> 00:31:46.695 four, five, 600% that you just made. 00:31:47.503 --> 00:31:49.093 But generally that's what we do. 00:31:49.123 --> 00:31:49.513 Dr. 00:31:49.518 --> 00:31:50.413 Russell is we. 00:31:52.648 --> 00:31:56.578 When we're in that position where we can potentially see a pin 00:31:56.578 --> 00:32:00.018 trade, but we don't want to lose out because of the gamma risk. 00:32:00.648 --> 00:32:05.638 Just take off the majority of your positions and then let 00:32:05.638 --> 00:32:08.698 the last one ride so that you guarantee yourself a good return. 00:32:10.093 --> 00:32:10.393 All right. 00:32:10.393 --> 00:32:12.793 So Aaron says it's the Odyssey. 00:32:15.433 --> 00:32:17.523 How did you get, node at 38 20? 00:32:17.523 --> 00:32:19.683 It doesn't look like there is much volume there. 00:32:20.883 --> 00:32:27.183 Well, volume isn't necessarily the final arbiter as to whether 00:32:27.183 --> 00:32:29.923 or not, that's where price is gonna end up at the end of the day. 00:32:30.553 --> 00:32:32.023 Cause you remember that the market. 00:32:32.458 --> 00:32:36.878 Is alive more than it is just when the cash market is open, 00:32:37.238 --> 00:32:38.948 it's alive 23 hours a day. 00:32:39.368 --> 00:32:42.908 So it's not necessarily where price is gonna go. 00:32:44.168 --> 00:32:49.578 What we look for are, and there, by the way, at that particular point 00:32:49.583 --> 00:32:56.388 there was a small child node that we call T zero a and, banking on. 00:32:56.763 --> 00:32:58.543 Price coming down and touching the bottom. 00:32:59.523 --> 00:33:00.663 That's how I chose it. 00:33:00.993 --> 00:33:04.653 Plus, you know that in combination with being so much out of the money 00:33:04.653 --> 00:33:06.183 so I can get a good risk to reward. 00:33:06.183 --> 00:33:07.443 You weigh those two things. 00:33:08.083 --> 00:33:10.003 You can't be totally precise. 00:33:10.033 --> 00:33:13.123 You don't, and it doesn't matter if you are totally precise cuz you can't. 00:33:13.513 --> 00:33:15.463 No one knows where the market's actually going to go. 00:33:15.883 --> 00:33:21.543 But using some of those features in the profile that would more or less slow price 00:33:21.543 --> 00:33:26.373 down as it went through there gives you the opportunity to then take profits. 00:33:27.158 --> 00:33:28.238 A little bit more readily. 00:33:28.718 --> 00:33:30.628 So that's generally the thinking. 00:33:31.555 --> 00:33:31.765 All right. 00:33:31.765 --> 00:33:33.475 Here's another question from Dr. 00:33:33.475 --> 00:33:33.955 Russell. 00:33:34.765 --> 00:33:39.025 When you say, let it ride, would you close at last minute or take assignment 00:33:39.025 --> 00:33:40.315 and close the futures contract? 00:33:40.315 --> 00:33:41.845 I would close before it gets assigned. 00:33:43.205 --> 00:33:44.945 Unless, you know what you're doing now. 00:33:44.945 --> 00:33:50.435 I happen to know what I'm doing and it would depend on Other positions I might 00:33:50.435 --> 00:33:54.425 have now, let's assume that you don't have any other positions and you just 00:33:54.425 --> 00:33:56.825 don't wanna trade the future's contract. 00:33:57.185 --> 00:33:58.055 Then you wanna get out. 00:33:58.295 --> 00:34:02.495 If you want to maximize you see that you're gonna absolutely maximize your 00:34:02.495 --> 00:34:05.765 profit by staying in that last couple of minutes is going to give you maybe 00:34:06.065 --> 00:34:11.465 an extra two, three, $400, then it might be worth it to go into expiration. 00:34:12.035 --> 00:34:17.195 Now keep in mind, you could easily lose that two, three, $400 in the matter of 00:34:17.195 --> 00:34:22.085 just a few seconds, once that futures contract appears in your account, and 00:34:22.090 --> 00:34:26.125 if price is moving fast and you're not able to get out of it quick enough, 00:34:26.215 --> 00:34:27.655 you could potentially lose a lot. 00:34:27.985 --> 00:34:29.665 You could also potentially gain a lot. 00:34:29.665 --> 00:34:34.195 There's been times when I've let futures contracts get assigned to me. 00:34:34.225 --> 00:34:37.075 And I, I make a few extra, a hundred dollars because when 00:34:37.075 --> 00:34:38.305 it came in price moved in. 00:34:38.965 --> 00:34:42.685 In my favor and made some money, but in general, you don't 00:34:42.685 --> 00:34:43.915 wanna take that risk at all. 00:34:43.945 --> 00:34:48.325 You just worked all day to try to get the profit from the options contract. 00:34:48.955 --> 00:34:51.695 Just get out, a few minutes before the market closes, 00:34:52.967 --> 00:34:56.057 make sure you have plenty of time to do it, and that you, your skills 00:34:56.057 --> 00:34:59.897 are up to the task because quite frankly, price is gonna be moving a 00:34:59.897 --> 00:35:01.457 little bit right there at the end. 00:35:01.517 --> 00:35:02.297 Usually is. 00:35:03.451 --> 00:35:07.701 So as far as letting it ride, it's a very, very personal choice, 00:35:08.761 --> 00:35:10.141 and depends on your situation. 00:35:10.171 --> 00:35:12.001 If you have a small account, you, you wanna get out. 00:35:12.601 --> 00:35:13.291 End of story. 00:35:15.631 --> 00:35:16.321 There's the market. 00:35:17.581 --> 00:35:17.881 All right. 00:35:17.971 --> 00:35:22.561 So our little trade didn't work, we're starting off this last 50 on a bad note. 00:35:24.586 --> 00:35:26.866 . But a fantastic note for the day. 00:35:27.776 --> 00:35:28.436 Oh, look at that. 00:35:28.436 --> 00:35:30.236 We pinned, I can't believe we pinned. 00:35:31.256 --> 00:35:32.846 We pinned the trade today. 00:35:35.186 --> 00:35:35.726 Wow. 00:35:36.866 --> 00:35:37.646 Just wow. 00:35:40.166 --> 00:35:41.666 The future's market hours. 00:35:41.726 --> 00:35:44.486 The future is the session opens at six o'clock at night and 00:35:44.486 --> 00:35:46.526 closes five o'clock at night. 00:35:46.526 --> 00:35:46.936 The next. 00:35:50.486 --> 00:35:52.136 The trial service includes everything. 00:35:53.396 --> 00:35:55.826 The trial service includes everything. 00:35:55.926 --> 00:35:59.866 So when I say everything, including, coaching and mentoring 00:36:00.376 --> 00:36:03.016 my personal mobile number, et cetera. 00:36:03.586 --> 00:36:05.986 So you're just like a, a full time member. 00:36:06.946 --> 00:36:08.056 And the reason why we have. 00:36:08.746 --> 00:36:11.266 Four week trial is because there's a lot to learn here. 00:36:11.266 --> 00:36:12.766 This is not just an alert service. 00:36:12.886 --> 00:36:14.656 It's a matter of fact, it's not an alert service. 00:36:15.226 --> 00:36:18.706 We issue alerts and I share all of my trades. 00:36:18.706 --> 00:36:20.686 I'm completely transparent about everything that I do. 00:36:20.686 --> 00:36:24.466 Everything is shown right up front, but this is really about 00:36:24.471 --> 00:36:28.437 learning the strategy, the methods and the process that we do. 00:36:29.693 --> 00:36:30.653 So, all right. 00:36:30.803 --> 00:36:35.543 Aaron is agreeing with Sasha my questions too at Aaron. 00:36:35.603 --> 00:36:36.023 I don't know. 00:36:36.983 --> 00:36:38.873 are they having a conversation back and forth? 00:36:41.123 --> 00:36:47.158 I'm not in it, but anyways, the center strike that we chose 00:36:47.158 --> 00:36:49.558 today was right at 38 20. 00:36:50.128 --> 00:36:54.418 So what that means is that most people will have pinned their trade 00:36:54.418 --> 00:36:57.328 and made massive amounts of money. 00:36:58.213 --> 00:37:01.753 In this case, probably around 600 to 800% return. 00:37:02.833 --> 00:37:04.693 That's what happened just now you just saw it. 00:37:05.593 --> 00:37:08.383 You just saw where our strategy was. 00:37:10.147 --> 00:37:14.437 how I got to the center of the butterfly at well, how I chose 00:37:14.467 --> 00:37:16.837 38, 20, I guess is the question. 00:37:17.017 --> 00:37:18.907 Does options on futures close at 4:00 PM? 00:37:18.907 --> 00:37:19.807 Yes, they do. 00:37:21.337 --> 00:37:22.417 They close at 4:00 PM. 00:37:23.677 --> 00:37:23.977 All right. 00:37:23.977 --> 00:37:29.867 So how I came to 38, 20 you'll notice that there's a box or a 00:37:29.872 --> 00:37:30.857 band going through from 38, 22 00:37:34.547 --> 00:37:34.967 all the way. 00:37:35.027 --> 00:37:35.927 Well, let's see. 00:37:35.927 --> 00:37:36.257 Where is. 00:37:36.992 --> 00:37:40.802 It goes from about 38, 22 all the way up to 38 34. 00:37:41.372 --> 00:37:44.462 That band is part of our analysis that I do at the beginning of the 00:37:44.462 --> 00:37:47.792 week, that outlines volume nodes. 00:37:48.242 --> 00:37:48.512 Right? 00:37:48.512 --> 00:37:50.862 So there is a, what you would call a child node. 00:37:50.862 --> 00:37:54.152 It's not a major node, but it's one of the smaller nodes and it's. 00:37:54.702 --> 00:37:57.252 It was developed by more recent activity. 00:37:57.882 --> 00:38:01.182 And so the idea was that I felt price was gonna go down. 00:38:01.182 --> 00:38:02.652 You'll see these arrows here. 00:38:02.652 --> 00:38:05.112 Those were my scenarios, my two scenarios for the day. 00:38:05.952 --> 00:38:07.722 That's where I felt price was gonna go. 00:38:07.782 --> 00:38:10.122 I thought it was gonna go up and down or. 00:38:10.932 --> 00:38:11.952 There are two cases. 00:38:11.952 --> 00:38:15.942 One was the bullish case was go up and then down went up a lot 00:38:15.942 --> 00:38:17.562 higher than, than I had thought. 00:38:18.072 --> 00:38:20.412 And then the other one was just go down, but both of them 00:38:20.412 --> 00:38:21.642 would've resulted in down. 00:38:21.642 --> 00:38:25.902 So now I have to decide where to put something, to match up that analysis. 00:38:26.202 --> 00:38:31.162 And so I'm looking for features in the market structure where I think 00:38:31.312 --> 00:38:34.672 price would find some support or. 00:38:35.422 --> 00:38:41.362 Or gravitas or just slow it down somewhat enough for us to have a fairly high 00:38:41.362 --> 00:38:44.392 degree of confidence that if price came down there, it would be easy to get in. 00:38:44.392 --> 00:38:44.482 And. 00:38:45.982 --> 00:38:50.152 That's basically it, the other part, the vast majority of our 00:38:50.512 --> 00:38:54.112 placement though, has to do with trying to get the best risk to reward. 00:38:54.112 --> 00:38:58.642 So we're placing strategies, butterfly symmetrical butterflies, so that 00:38:58.647 --> 00:39:02.702 we can get the best possible entry or the debit to that butterfly 00:39:02.972 --> 00:39:06.252 relative to the maximum profit. 00:39:07.777 --> 00:39:11.257 That is like part that's everything that this strategy is about. 00:39:11.317 --> 00:39:15.637 And this methodology is getting that asymmetric trade on there because we 00:39:15.642 --> 00:39:21.112 know that if we put on these asymmetric trades, in even if we somewhat close, it 00:39:21.117 --> 00:39:26.052 doesn't matter, the law of probabilities will dictate that we're gonna hit. 00:39:26.052 --> 00:39:26.232 So. 00:39:27.297 --> 00:39:30.997 Pin trade so many right at the edges, some out of the money that 00:39:30.997 --> 00:39:32.437 are still profitable, et cetera. 00:39:32.977 --> 00:39:35.587 There's some level of return that we're going to get. 00:39:36.427 --> 00:39:42.337 But as long as we have that asymmetric and we have that small risk and our risk 00:39:42.337 --> 00:39:47.137 is well defined and our upside is much greater than our risk, then we're going to 00:39:47.137 --> 00:39:49.267 in the long term, have a positive expect. 00:39:55.582 --> 00:39:55.942 Right. 00:39:56.242 --> 00:39:57.112 Another question. 00:39:57.142 --> 00:39:59.182 What is the timeframe in this volume profile? 00:39:59.182 --> 00:40:01.522 Is it different from one we're looking at before? 00:40:02.032 --> 00:40:07.902 There's the timeframe is I start with looking at about 20 months worth of data. 00:40:08.142 --> 00:40:10.082 It depends on what the past is. 00:40:10.652 --> 00:40:11.012 Right? 00:40:11.312 --> 00:40:14.462 So if we were at the top of the market, I'd probably only be looking at maybe 00:40:14.462 --> 00:40:16.692 four or five months of data tops. 00:40:17.212 --> 00:40:21.382 But where we're at right now, there isn't a lot of recent data because 00:40:21.382 --> 00:40:23.032 we're coming down off of a high. 00:40:23.422 --> 00:40:27.132 So I have to go all the way back to what the last period of time was. 00:40:27.132 --> 00:40:31.212 It had actual volume so that I can see the profiles from the past there. 00:40:31.272 --> 00:40:32.652 They still have relevance today. 00:40:33.652 --> 00:40:37.252 And then from that I will build the profile. 00:40:37.252 --> 00:40:40.832 I think I did a live show on this yesterday morning. 00:40:41.372 --> 00:40:46.927 So if you go back to my YouTube videos for yesterday morning, 00:40:46.932 --> 00:40:52.417 you'll see where I actually created the weekly market structure. 00:40:52.777 --> 00:40:57.407 And so you'll see very clearly, that this how I created these. 00:40:58.527 --> 00:41:02.457 And some of them I added since then, so we've updated it a little bit and 00:41:02.457 --> 00:41:03.777 it gets updated throughout the week. 00:41:03.777 --> 00:41:04.977 And then every week we redo it. 00:41:05.720 --> 00:41:07.190 All right, let's go back to the big head. 00:41:08.690 --> 00:41:09.110 All right. 00:41:09.110 --> 00:41:09.830 So there you go. 00:41:09.930 --> 00:41:11.070 I shouldn't have taken the trade. 00:41:11.400 --> 00:41:15.450 He, he forced me to do it, so it's all on him. 00:41:15.450 --> 00:41:19.900 I'm gonna be sending him a bill, but that's our first trade. 00:41:20.920 --> 00:41:24.030 Ultimately, I wouldn't have taken the trade, but I felt pretty good 00:41:24.120 --> 00:41:27.850 about taking it only because it was basically a pin trade. 00:41:27.850 --> 00:41:29.140 I made a lot of money today. 00:41:29.190 --> 00:41:33.120 It looks like members of the service made way more than I did because I got out 00:41:33.125 --> 00:41:35.460 early so that I could manage this stream. 00:41:37.220 --> 00:41:39.630 we'll be back here tomorrow doing it again. 00:41:39.630 --> 00:41:41.270 We're gonna do this 50 times. 00:41:41.600 --> 00:41:44.180 What we're really trying to do is gather information about. 00:41:44.570 --> 00:41:45.860 Trading that final hour. 00:41:45.910 --> 00:41:50.470 Are there things that we're going to notice after analyzing all that data about 00:41:50.470 --> 00:41:55.690 the returns that we got that might help us in, perhaps even creating another 00:41:56.240 --> 00:41:58.690 strategy trading near the end of the day? 00:41:59.560 --> 00:42:00.070 I don't know. 00:42:00.650 --> 00:42:02.150 Maybe I'm taking it a little bit lightly. 00:42:02.270 --> 00:42:07.040 I'll try to be a little bit more focused on, on that stuff, but that's basically. 00:42:07.475 --> 00:42:07.865 It. 00:42:08.135 --> 00:42:11.945 And it's also so that other people can see what we're doing and to give a report 00:42:11.945 --> 00:42:13.705 of how our trading day went as well. 00:42:13.705 --> 00:42:16.735 So it has a multi-prong purpose. 00:42:17.665 --> 00:42:19.435 So anyways, that's it. 00:42:19.975 --> 00:42:21.565 I want to thank you very much for showing up. 00:42:21.595 --> 00:42:23.065 We'll be back here tomorrow night. 00:42:23.425 --> 00:42:25.525 Peace to you all take care.